Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H236 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	15.68	15.51	15.31	15.00	16.11
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.12	0.05	0.54
G	12	9	8	10	14
A	14	13	14	11	16
PTS	26	22	22	21	30
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	98	93	86	103	111
PIM	39	26	27	24	41
Hits	121	109	123	91	133
Blocks	69	64	65	63	75

Sample: 64 GP · 830 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

129Danila Yurov-14

130Andrew Copp-14

131Mikael Backlund-15

132Jason Dickinson-15

133Oliver Kapanen-16

134Conor Geekie-17

135Luke Kunin-17

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 66% below where it started (0.76 in the first half, 0.26 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 50% above last season, 26 to 39.

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 49% above where it started (4.74 in the first half, 7.08 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 33% above last season, 9 to 12.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jason Dickinson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (EDM, traded): Jeff Blashill CHI · pre-trade → Kris Knoblauch EDM · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.68	15.51	16.11	-4%
5v5 TOI	12.92	12.98	12.80	+1%
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.54	-83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.68: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.92: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.84	4.84	5.37	-10%
G/60	0.55	0.43	0.71	-39%
iSH%	11.36	8.88	13.16	-32%
ixG/60	–	0.48	0.57	-16%
iCF/60	–	9.97	11.21	-11%
iSCF/60	–	5.20	6.33	-18%
iHDCF/60	–	2.02	2.78	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.9% sits near the 13.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.48 (37th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.99	9.01	8.95	+1%
IPP	52.05	48.33	60.54	-20%
1A/60	0.32	0.36	0.30	+20%
2A/60	0.28	0.22	0.30	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 48.3% sits below the 60.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.54	-83%
PP iSH%	13.75	0.00	17.63	-100%
PP SOG/60	11.40	10.29	8.64	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	0.63	1.37	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.94	1.44	2.20	-35%
Hits/60	6.77	6.14	7.23	-15%
Blks/60	3.00	2.89	3.17	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.17/60 and 2nd-half 7.08 vs a 6.14 season rate (7.23 3-yr) (69th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.77/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.89/60 (60th pct league-wide) → 3.00 projected.