🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Conor Geekie

TBL · Age 22.2 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′4″, 207 lb · Draft 2022, 11th overall (ARI)
TBLteam
C,RWposition
134position rank
479skater rank
-17overall
-25offense
8peripherals
goals
12
assists
18
points
30
power play points
9
shots on goal
99
penalty minutes
31
hits
116
blocked shots
30

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection adj2025-26thinH28 GPH16 GPPrev 352 GP · 1y
TOI12.33––9.9712.33
PP TOI0.74––0.560.74
G12–––13
A▲18–––9
PTS▲30–––22
PPP▲9–––3
SOG▲99–––95
PIM▼31–––25
Hits▼116–––153
Blocks▼30–––39

Sample: 14 GP · 132 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)
131Mikael Backlund-15
132Jason Dickinson-15
133Oliver Kapanen-16
134Conor Geekie-17
135Luke Kunin-17
136Morgan Barron-18
137Vladislav Namestnikov-18
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (middle-six + PP, skating caps ceiling; one day could become someone like Johansen) blended with 2025-26 NHL (14 GP) at w=0.35. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here. PERIPHERALS RE-DERIVED 2026-07-27: the rookie-baseline blend applied its w=0.50 blend weighting to hits/blocks/PIM as well as to scoring, which is wrong for role stats. Hits and blocks are the most persistent, least noisy things a young player produces (they are excluded from the engine's 3-yr rate hedge for exactly that reason), and that side of the blend carries no real information about them, so halving the observed rate toward it just discards the best signal available. Re-derived at 65/35 toward his own observed rate over projected TOI rather than 100%, since rookie minutes can still move.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Forward
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Conor Geekie is weak or average, light where he’s strong
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)
Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI12.33n/a12.33
5v5 TOI11.44n/a11.44
PP TOI0.74n/a0.74
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 0 · 4 · 4
TOI*
3-yr 12.339.97Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 11.449.41Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
3-yr 0.740.56Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
12.3322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
11.4422-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.7422-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/605.72n/a5.55
G/600.73n/a0.71
iSH%12.79n/a12.79
ixG/60–n/a0.65
iCF/60–n/a11.10
iSCF/60–n/a6.56
iHDCF/60–n/a3.03
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 0 · 4 · 4
SOG/60
3-yr 5.555.31Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 12.790.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.650.36Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 11.1011.68Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 6.563.19Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 3.031.06Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
5.5522-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
12.7922-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.6522-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
11.1022-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
6.5622-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
3.0322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
1222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
9922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindProject Geekie for a middle-six TBL role for 2026-27 with some PP; hedge the rate on the skating question.
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%8.18n/a8.18
IPP52.36n/a52.36
1A/600.40n/a0.40
2A/600.00n/a0.00
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 0 · 4 · 4
1A/60
3-yr 0.400.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.001.06Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.4022-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
1822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
3022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindProject Geekie for a middle-six TBL role for 2026-27 with some PP; hedge the rate on the skating question.
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.2%, IPP 52.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.74n/a0.74
PP iSH%19.97n/a19.97
PP SOG/603.15n/a7.76
PP ixG/60–n/a0.61
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 0 · 4 · 4
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.740.56Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 7.760.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.613.86Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.7422-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
7.7622-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.6122-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/602.17n/a1.61
Hits/6013.07n/a9.68
Blks/603.27n/a2.42
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 0 · 4 · 4
PIMs/60
3-yr 1.614.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 9.6815.93Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 2.425.31Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.6122-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
9.6822-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
2.4222-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
3122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
11622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
3022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindHits surging late: Q4 15.93/60 and 2nd-half 15.93 vs a 9.68 season rate (9.68 3-yr) (84th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 13.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.31/60 and 2nd-half 5.31 vs a 2.42 season rate (2.42 3-yr) (46th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.27/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.