Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H237 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.86	13.30	13.53	12.72	–
PP TOI	1.25	0.63	0.66	0.60	–
G	15	13	13	14	–
A	20	17	11	23	–
PTS	35	30	24	37	–
PPP	5	3	4	2	–
SOG	97	89	86	91	–
PIM	39	31	46	16	–
Hits	81	70	85	54	–
Blocks	48	48	38	59	–

Sample: 73 GP · 893 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

126Sean Couturier-13

127Justin Danforth-14

128Nic Dowd-14

129Danila Yurov-14

130Andrew Copp-14

131Mikael Backlund-15

132Jason Dickinson-15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Both depth charts have him on the 2nd power play unit in his 2nd NHL season. The bump stays small on purpose: his even strength scoring rate faded through last season, so this bet moves the minutes and leaves the rate alone.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 85 pace in the second half after 54 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 26% above last season, 31 to 39.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 15% above last season, 13 to 15.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Danila Yurov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.86	13.30	n/a
5v5 TOI	12.88	12.24	n/a
PP TOI	1.25	0.63	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 21 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.86: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 12.88: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.25: 2nd unit power play role that both depth charts agree on; the minutes move, the rate does not

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.19	5.04	n/a
G/60	0.76	0.74	n/a
iSH%	14.68	14.68	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.78	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.81	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.32	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	4.10	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 21 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.85 (1st half) to 0.69 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.62	9.62	n/a
IPP	63.14	63.14	n/a
1A/60	0.34	0.34	n/a
2A/60	0.54	0.54	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 21 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 63.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.25	0.63	n/a
PP iSH%	24.95	24.95	n/a
PP SOG/60	2.95	5.21	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.64	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 21 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.6→1.2 PP TOI/gp (2nd unit power play role that both depth charts agree on; the minutes move, the rate does not) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.23	1.75	n/a
Hits/60	4.44	3.96	n/a
Blks/60	2.71	2.89	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 20 · 21 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.23/60 and 2nd-half 4.83 vs a 3.96 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (49th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.44/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.46/60 and 2nd-half 2.22 below the 2.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.71/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.