Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H239 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3153 GP · 2y
TOI	16.58	16.65	15.30	16.70	17.55
PP TOI	0.71	0.87	0.38	1.35	1.95
G	11	13	13	13	14
A	24	25	18	33	31
PTS	35	38	31	45	45
PPP	2	1	2	0	6
SOG	128	125	108	142	186
PIM	31	32	29	34	38
Hits	109	105	130	80	60
Blocks	39	44	37	51	46

Sample: 78 GP · 996 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

123Ty Dellandrea-10

124Chandler Stephenson-10

125Teddy Blueger-12

126Sean Couturier-13

127Justin Danforth-14

128Nic Dowd-14

129Danila Yurov-14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 74% below where it started (1.38 in the first half, 0.36 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 89% above his 3-year rate last season (11.72 against 6.21).

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 84% above where it started (4.11 in the first half, 7.54 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (0.36 against 0.62).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anton LundellC · Florida Panthers89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sean Couturier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.58	16.65	17.55	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.50	12.77	13.96	-9%
PP TOI	0.71	0.87	1.95	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.58: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.50: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.71: role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.89	5.12	7.25	-29%
G/60	0.43	0.60	0.45	+33%
iSH%	8.53	11.72	6.21	+89%
ixG/60	–	0.68	0.79	-14%
iCF/60	–	11.08	12.56	-12%
iSCF/60	–	6.45	6.72	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	3.62	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.7% vs a 6.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.68 (59th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 5.12 vs 7.25) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.99	9.03	8.94	+1%
IPP	62.69	70.40	57.55	+22%
1A/60	0.48	0.36	0.62	-42%
2A/60	0.55	0.60	0.56	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 70.4% vs 57.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.71	0.87	1.95	-56%
PP iSH%	5.78	0.00	7.41	-100%
PP SOG/60	12.37	11.55	10.87	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	1.60	1.87	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.9→0.7 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.63	1.69	1.74	-3%
Hits/60	6.07	5.66	3.09	+83%
Blks/60	1.73	1.87	2.17	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.27/60 and 2nd-half 7.54 vs a 5.66 season rate (3.09 3-yr) (66th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.20/60 and 2nd-half 1.43 below the 1.87 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.17 3-yr mark.