Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2646 GP	H25 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3192 GP · 3y
TOI	13.96	14.19	–	14.14	13.02
PP TOI	0.13	0.15	–	0.14	0.06
G	5	3	–	4	5
A	15	16	–	18	14
PTS	20	20	–	22	19
PPP	0	0	–	0	0
SOG	88	89	–	85	83
PIM	61	39	–	32	58
Hits	182	232	–	225	150
Blocks	51	66	–	70	40

Sample: 46 GP · 514 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

120Connor Dewar-9

121Sean Monahan-9

122Nick Paul-10

123Ty Dellandrea-10

124Chandler Stephenson-10

125Teddy Blueger-12

126Sean Couturier-13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 66% above his 3-year rate last season (0.70 against 0.42).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 63% below his 3-year rate last season (2.29 against 6.17).

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 56% above last season, 39 to 61.

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 23% below last season, 66 to 51.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers94% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Tanner JeannotLW,RW · Boston Bruins92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins92% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Jack McBainC,LW · Utah Mammoth91% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ty Dellandrea is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.96	14.19	13.02	+9%
5v5 TOI	11.27	11.19	11.11	+1%
PP TOI	0.13	0.15	0.06	+142%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 1 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.96: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.27: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.24	5.24	4.98	+5%
G/60	0.16	0.12	0.31	-61%
iSH%	3.77	2.29	6.17	-63%
ixG/60	–	0.64	0.54	+18%
iCF/60	–	9.44	10.15	-7%
iSCF/60	–	5.48	6.24	-12%
iHDCF/60	–	3.38	2.67	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 1 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.3% vs 6.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.64 (54th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 3.8%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.29	7.19	7.90	-9%
IPP	71.39	75.00	54.92	+37%
1A/60	0.53	0.70	0.42	+66%
2A/60	0.32	0.23	0.39	-42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 1 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 75.0% vs 54.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.38 vs 2.67) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.15	0.06	+142%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	9.24	8.82	5.11	+72%
PP ixG/60	–	2.18	2.26	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 1 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.76	2.33	3.65	-36%
Hits/60	12.65	14.68	9.61	+53%
Blks/60	2.96	3.26	2.22	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 1 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (94th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (12.65/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.35/60 and 2nd-half 3.47 vs a 3.26 season rate (2.22 3-yr) (68th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.96/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.