Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H229 GP	H122 GP	Prev 376 GP · 1y
TOI	14.51	13.68	12.38	13.89	16.44
PP TOI	1.15	1.23	0.76	1.86	1.12
G	18	11	8	12	24
A	16	13	6	23	20
PTS	34	24	14	35	44
PPP	6	5	6	4	5
SOG	125	109	104	110	152
PIM	38	51	71	27	32
Hits	86	119	120	107	71
Blocks	32	35	36	36	33

Sample: 51 GP · 582 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

119Jack Roslovic-8

120Connor Dewar-9

121Sean Monahan-9

122Nick Paul-10

123Ty Dellandrea-10

124Chandler Stephenson-10

125Teddy Blueger-12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 71 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 110% above his 3-year rate last season (7.51 against 3.58).

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 107% above his 3-year rate last season (2.38 against 1.15).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs89% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils84% match
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild84% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Paul is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year (TBL, traded): Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.51	13.68	16.44	-17%
5v5 TOI	12.21	11.43	14.13	-19%
PP TOI	1.15	1.23	1.12	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 21 · 12 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.51: reverts toward the 3-yr 16.4
5v5 TOI → 12.21: reverts toward the 3-yr 14.1
PP TOI → 1.15: role tapered late (Q4 0.9 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.87	5.87	6.59	-11%
G/60	0.67	0.62	0.84	-26%
iSH%	11.39	10.56	12.75	-17%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.66	+18%
iCF/60	–	12.35	12.24	+1%
iSCF/60	–	7.31	6.54	+12%
iHDCF/60	–	3.50	3.52	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 21 · 12 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 10.6% vs 12.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 11.4%, lifting the goal rate ~8%.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 5.87 vs 6.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.60	7.71	10.03	-23%
IPP	67.24	67.03	67.50	-1%
1A/60	0.31	0.21	0.45	-53%
2A/60	0.36	0.41	0.34	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 21 · 12 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.7%, IPP 67.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	1.23	1.12	+10%
PP iSH%	21.73	12.43	28.46	-56%
PP SOG/60	6.96	7.64	4.92	+55%
PP ixG/60	–	2.38	1.15	+107%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 21 · 12 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (12.4% vs 28.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.68	3.09	1.45	+113%
Hits/60	5.94	7.51	3.58	+110%
Blks/60	1.82	1.96	1.62	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 1 · 21 · 12 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.51/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 5.94 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.96/60 (31st pct league-wide) → 1.82 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.21/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.