Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H240 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3217 GP · 3y
TOI	15.67	15.77	14.64	16.14	15.22
PP TOI	1.33	1.16	1.10	1.24	1.55
G	21	25	21	31	16
A	21	18	14	23	27
PTS	42	43	35	54	43
PPP	6	7	2	14	6
SOG	154	167	160	177	143
PIM	16	19	19	19	14
Hits	61	55	68	36	32
Blocks	32	32	39	23	36

Sample: 69 GP · 973 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

116Filip Chytil-8

117Ryan Poehling-8

118Adam Lowry-8

119Jack Roslovic-8

120Connor Dewar-9

121Sean Monahan-9

122Nick Paul-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 68 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 80% above his 3-year rate last season (2.47 against 1.37).

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 60% below where it started (14.15 in the first half, 5.60 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 48% below his 3-year rate last season (0.37 against 0.72).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres87% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks84% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack Roslovic is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year (EDM, traded): Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.67	15.77	15.22	+4%
5v5 TOI	13.48	14.11	12.35	+14%
PP TOI	1.33	1.16	1.55	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 8 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.48: role tapered late (Q4 12.9 vs 14.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.33: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 1.5 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.71	7.71	6.65	+16%
G/60	0.88	0.92	0.69	+33%
iSH%	11.36	11.93	10.42	+15%
ixG/60	–	0.84	0.66	+27%
iCF/60	–	14.30	12.23	+17%
iSCF/60	–	8.26	6.40	+29%
iHDCF/60	–	3.33	2.73	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 8 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.84 (80th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.66 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 16% (5v5 SOG/60 7.71 vs 6.65) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.03	8.84	9.44	-6%
IPP	64.75	62.45	69.95	-11%
1A/60	0.47	0.37	0.72	-48%
2A/60	0.47	0.43	0.52	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 8 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 62.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.30 vs 12.23) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.33 vs 2.73) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.33	1.16	1.55	-25%
PP iSH%	17.35	33.37	5.74	+481%
PP SOG/60	8.04	8.99	9.29	-3%
PP ixG/60	–	2.47	1.37	+80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 8 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.2→1.3 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 1.5 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.47 vs 1.37) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.57	0.62	0.54	+15%
Hits/60	3.20	2.71	1.72	+57%
Blks/60	1.82	1.66	1.72	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 8 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.69/60 and 2nd-half 3.82 vs a 2.71 season rate (1.72 3-yr) (34th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.20/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.07/60 and 2nd-half 2.10 vs a 1.66 season rate (1.72 3-yr) (22nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.82/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.