Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-26thin	H26 GP	H16 GP	Prev 3130 GP · 2y
TOI	14.81	–	13.52	14.16	14.81
PP TOI	1.44	–	1.32	1.12	1.44
G	21	–	–	–	22
A	21	–	–	–	23
PTS	42	–	–	–	45
PPP	6	–	–	–	6
SOG	185	–	–	–	195
PIM	22	–	–	–	30
Hits	27	–	–	–	35
Blocks	21	–	–	–	31

Sample: 12 GP · 151 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

113Dawson Mercer-4

114Barrett Hayton-5

115James Hagens-8

116Filip Chytil-8

117Ryan Poehling-8

118Adam Lowry-8

119Jack Roslovic-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 58% below where it started (1.64 in the first half, 0.69 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 54% below where it started (10.74 in the first half, 4.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth89% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks89% match
shared: SOG
Matt CoronatoRW · Calgary Flames85% match
shared: SOG
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Filip Chytil is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	14.81	n/a	14.81
5v5 TOI	12.69	n/a	12.69
PP TOI	1.44	n/a	1.44

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.81: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
5v5 TOI → 12.69: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
PP TOI → 1.44: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	7.98	n/a	9.85
G/60	0.82	n/a	1.02
iSH%	10.31	n/a	10.31
ixG/60	–	n/a	1.00
iCF/60	–	n/a	18.04
iSCF/60	–	n/a	10.62
iHDCF/60	–	n/a	4.51

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.27	n/a	9.27
IPP	69.81	n/a	69.81
1A/60	0.49	n/a	0.58
2A/60	0.33	n/a	0.33

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 69.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.44	n/a	1.44
PP iSH%	13.79	n/a	13.79
PP SOG/60	11.75	n/a	9.27
PP ixG/60	–	n/a	1.52

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.96	n/a	1.60
Hits/60	1.49	n/a	1.93
Blks/60	0.92	n/a	1.53

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 0 · 6 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.82/60 and 2nd-half 0.82 below the 1.93 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.49/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.93 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.00 below the 1.53 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.92/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.53 3-yr mark.