Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	18.20	18.23	16.90	17.76	17.22
PP TOI	1.32	1.61	1.25	1.98	1.44
G	21	20	20	20	22
A	20	22	14	30	20
PTS	41	42	34	50	42
PPP	7	7	2	12	8
SOG	152	158	149	167	145
PIM	24	33	44	22	20
Hits	37	33	29	37	36
Blocks	47	47	40	54	51

Sample: 82 GP · 1,153 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

110Eetu Luostarinen-3

111Lane Pederson-3

112Calum Ritchie-4

113Dawson Mercer-4

114Barrett Hayton-5

115James Hagens-8

116Filip Chytil-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 80% above his 3-year rate last season (3.45 against 1.92).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 30 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (13.61 against 9.50).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues89% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets86% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames85% match
shared: Blocks
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks85% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dawson Mercer is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.20	18.23	17.22	+6%
5v5 TOI	14.29	14.07	13.46	+5%
PP TOI	1.32	1.61	1.44	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.20: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.29: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.32: role tapered late (Q4 1.0 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.46	5.46	6.18	-12%
G/60	0.57	0.42	0.85	-51%
iSH%	11.22	7.69	13.78	-44%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.81	-11%
iCF/60	–	11.86	11.43	+4%
iSCF/60	–	7.49	7.03	+7%
iHDCF/60	–	4.06	3.72	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.7% sits near the 13.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 5.46 vs 6.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.29	6.77	8.37	-19%
IPP	66.85	67.71	65.45	+3%
1A/60	0.50	0.52	0.49	+6%
2A/60	0.27	0.36	0.24	+50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.8%, IPP 67.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.32	1.61	1.44	+12%
PP iSH%	18.01	13.30	21.42	-38%
PP SOG/60	12.99	13.61	9.50	+43%
PP ixG/60	–	3.45	1.92	+80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.6→1.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.0 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (13.3% vs 21.4%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.23	1.51	0.89	+70%
Hits/60	1.47	1.30	1.72	-25%
Blks/60	1.60	1.72	1.98	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (12th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.12/60 and 2nd-half 1.35 below the 1.72 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.60/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.98 3-yr mark.