🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Lane Pederson

LAK · Age 29.0 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′0″, 192 lb · Undrafted
LAKteam
Cposition
111position rank
389skater rank
-3overall
-53offense
50peripherals
goals
7
assists
9
points
16
power play points
0
shots on goal
69
penalty minutes
65
hits
261
blocked shots
40

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH25 GPH125-26Prev 327 GP · 1y
TOI11.93–8.74–11.93
PP TOI0.70–––0.70
G7–––9
A9–––9
PTS16–––18
PPP0–––0
SOG69–––82
PIM65–––79
Hits261–––207
Blocks40–––33

Sample: 5 GP · 43 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)
108Ryan Donato-3
109Justin Hryckowian-3
110Eetu Luostarinen-3
111Lane Pederson-3
112Calum Ritchie-4
113Dawson Mercer-4
114Barrett Hayton-5
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Forward
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Lane Pederson is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
    fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
  • Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
    fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
  • William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
    fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
  • Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
    fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice
Last year (PHI, traded): Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI11.93n/a11.93
5v5 TOI11.02n/a11.02
PP TOI0.70n/a0.70
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 5 · 0
TOI*
3-yr 11.938.74Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 11.028.74Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
11.9322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
11.0222-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.7022-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/602.88n/a4.64
G/600.44n/a0.61
iSH%13.15n/a13.15
ixG/60–n/a0.65
iCF/60–n/a7.87
iSCF/60–n/a5.04
iHDCF/60–n/a3.23
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 5 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 4.640.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 13.15Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.650.26Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 7.875.49Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 5.042.74Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 3.231.37Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
4.6422-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
13.1522-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.6522-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
7.8722-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
5.0422-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
3.2322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
722-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
6922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%9.95n/a9.95
IPP39.93n/a39.93
1A/600.61n/a0.61
2A/600.00n/a0.00
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 5 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.610.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.000.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.6122-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
1622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.9%, IPP 39.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.70n/a0.70
PP iSH%0.00n/a0.00
PP SOG/609.47n/a9.47
PP ixG/60–n/a1.57
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 5 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.70Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 9.47Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 1.57Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.7022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
9.4722-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
1.5722-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/603.33n/a4.84
Hits/6017.06n/a13.52
Blks/603.00n/a2.22
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 5 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 4.840.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 13.5221.96Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 2.224.12Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
4.8422-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
13.5222-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
2.2222-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
6522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
26122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
4022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindHits surging late: Q4 21.96/60 and 2nd-half 21.96 vs a 13.52 season rate (13.52 3-yr) (92nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 17.06/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.12/60 and 2nd-half 4.12 vs a 2.22 season rate (2.22 3-yr) (39th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.00/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindFights / takes majors (0.40/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.