Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.30	13.30	13.73	12.17	–
PP TOI	0.91	0.63	1.08	0.17	–
G	15	14	16	12	–
A	18	16	18	14	–
PTS	33	30	34	27	–
PPP	8	5	8	2	–
SOG	89	84	82	86	–
PIM	40	43	42	45	–
Hits	124	121	117	124	–
Blocks	52	45	49	40	–

Sample: 81 GP · 894 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

106Parker Kelly-3

107Jordan Staal-3

108Ryan Donato-3

109Justin Hryckowian-3

110Eetu Luostarinen-3

111Lane Pederson-3

112Calum Ritchie-4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 66% above where it started (12.01 in the first half, 19.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs90% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Justin Hryckowian is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.30	13.30	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.30	11.04	n/a
PP TOI	0.91	0.63	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.30: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 11.30: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.91: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.1, Q4 1.5) over the full-year 0.6

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	4.90	4.90	n/a
G/60	0.80	0.80	n/a
iSH%	16.33	16.33	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.76	n/a
iCF/60	–	8.25	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.50	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.96	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.54	10.54	n/a
IPP	67.74	67.74	n/a
1A/60	0.54	0.54	n/a
2A/60	0.34	0.34	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 67.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.91	0.63	n/a
PP iSH%	33.29	33.29	n/a
PP SOG/60	7.06	7.06	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	2.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.6→0.9 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.1, Q4 1.5) over the full-year 0.6) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.51	2.75	n/a
Hits/60	7.92	7.92	n/a
Blks/60	2.84	2.48	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.92/60 (79th pct league-wide) → 7.92 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.05/60 and 2nd-half 2.76 vs a 2.48 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (48th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.20/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.