Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3215 GP · 3y
TOI	12.59	12.70	13.68	11.43	11.79
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.13	0.04	0.06
G	12	21	29	12	6
A	12	14	17	11	9
PTS	24	35	46	24	16
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	104	103	106	100	93
PIM	35	30	29	31	37
Hits	197	177	187	169	192
Blocks	65	58	69	47	62

Sample: 82 GP · 852 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

103Justin Sourdif-1

104Jiri Kulich-1

105Peyton Krebs-3

106Parker Kelly-3

107Jordan Staal-3

108Ryan Donato-3

109Justin Hryckowian-3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 29 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 142% above where it started (12.01 in the first half, 29.05 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Parker Kelly is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.59	12.70	11.79	+8%
5v5 TOI	10.71	10.40	9.47	+10%
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.06	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.59: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.71: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.4, Q4 10.8) over the full-year 10.4
PP TOI → 0.08: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.33	6.33	6.13	+3%
G/60	0.96	1.34	0.32	+314%
iSH%	15.13	21.17	5.28	+301%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.55	+31%
iCF/60	–	12.74	12.61	+1%
iSCF/60	–	7.46	6.19	+21%
iHDCF/60	–	3.73	2.48	+51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.55 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.69	9.41	5.45	+72%
IPP	76.51	79.79	61.56	+30%
1A/60	0.37	0.42	0.27	+58%
2A/60	0.32	0.49	0.26	+86%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.4% (3-yr 5.5%) AND IPP 79.8% (3-yr 61.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.73 vs 2.48) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.49 vs 3-yr 0.26) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.06	-9%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	4.18	14.06	4.86	+189%
PP ixG/60	–	2.57	1.18	+117%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.57 vs 1.18) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.29	1.97	2.77	-29%
Hits/60	13.00	12.03	14.46	-17%
Blks/60	3.27	3.24	3.33	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (13.00/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.24/60 (67th pct league-wide) → 3.27 projected.