Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2667 GP	H230 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3197 GP · 3y
TOI	15.35	15.12	14.19	15.02	16.84
PP TOI	2.24	2.03	2.23	1.87	2.21
G	14	12	12	12	17
A	20	18	19	18	24
PTS	34	31	31	30	41
PPP	9	7	8	7	11
SOG	141	144	150	140	166
PIM	49	66	77	58	47
Hits	46	42	56	30	55
Blocks	34	36	38	34	36

Sample: 67 GP · 832 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

111Lane Pederson-3

112Calum Ritchie-4

113Dawson Mercer-4

114Barrett Hayton-5

115James Hagens-8

116Filip Chytil-8

117Ryan Poehling-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 56% above where it started (4.02 in the first half, 6.25 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 29% above last season, 7 to 9.

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 35% below where it started (11.39 in the first half, 7.41 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 68% above his 3-year rate last season (3.32 against 1.98).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes88% match
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres88% match
shared: PIM
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils88% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues88% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Barrett Hayton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, Hits
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangerscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.35	15.12	16.84	-10%
5v5 TOI	11.85	12.43	12.77	-3%
PP TOI	2.24	2.03	2.21	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 21 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.85: role tapered late (Q4 10.6 vs 12.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.24: same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.3, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 2.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.56	6.56	6.82	-4%
G/60	0.30	0.22	0.60	-63%
iSH%	6.47	3.35	8.73	-62%
ixG/60	–	0.94	0.97	-3%
iCF/60	–	12.18	12.62	-3%
iSCF/60	–	7.93	9.04	-12%
iHDCF/60	–	4.25	5.03	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 21 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.4% sits near the 8.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.94 (89th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.15	8.10	8.21	-1%
IPP	47.33	42.44	55.32	-23%
1A/60	0.37	0.36	0.38	-6%
2A/60	0.42	0.43	0.38	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 21 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 42.4% sits below the 55.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.24	2.03	2.21	-8%
PP iSH%	15.61	17.44	14.29	+22%
PP SOG/60	9.19	10.15	11.58	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	2.40	2.38	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 21 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.0→2.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.3, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 2.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.78	3.32	1.98	+68%
Hits/60	2.42	2.16	2.79	-23%
Blks/60	1.79	1.87	1.72	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 21 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.89/60 and 2nd-half 2.81 vs a 2.16 season rate (2.79 3-yr) (27th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.42/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.26/60 and 2nd-half 1.91 below the 1.87 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.79/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.72 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.32/60 (85th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.