Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H241 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3198 GP · 3y
TOI	14.90	15.07	15.37	13.48	13.75
PP TOI	0.48	0.33	0.48	0.14	0.31
G	14	12	15	8	12
A	26	27	27	27	18
PTS	40	39	42	35	30
PPP	3	1	2	0	2
SOG	108	103	121	80	102
PIM	15	13	14	12	12
Hits	57	48	59	35	60
Blocks	99	94	90	100	89

Sample: 75 GP · 877 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

114Barrett Hayton-5

115James Hagens-8

116Filip Chytil-8

117Ryan Poehling-8

118Adam Lowry-8

119Jack Roslovic-8

120Connor Dewar-9

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 59 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 74% above his 3-year rate last season (1.09 against 0.62).

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 46% above where it started (4.28 in the first half, 6.24 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 17% above last season, 12 to 14.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: Blocks
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames80% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets79% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames78% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Poehling is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: PIM, PPP, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.90	15.07	13.75	+10%
5v5 TOI	11.90	11.70	11.19	+5%
PP TOI	0.48	0.33	0.31	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.90: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.48: same coach (Joel Quenneville) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.5, Q4 0.8) over the full-year 0.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.57	5.40	5.69	-5%
G/60	0.56	0.55	0.57	-3%
iSH%	10.07	10.19	9.99	+2%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.65	-3%
iCF/60	–	10.46	10.46	+0%
iSCF/60	–	5.60	6.01	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.01	3.38	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.2% sits near the 10.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.14	11.44	7.49	+53%
IPP	66.53	65.78	68.79	-4%
1A/60	0.90	1.09	0.62	+74%
2A/60	0.35	0.34	0.30	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.4% vs a 7.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.48	0.33	0.31	+7%
PP iSH%	29.25	0.00	37.50	-100%
PP SOG/60	5.92	2.44	7.91	-69%
PP ixG/60	–	0.62	0.97	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.5 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Joel Quenneville) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.5, Q4 0.8) over the full-year 0.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.75	0.68	0.70	-3%
Hits/60	3.41	2.94	3.77	-22%
Blks/60	4.14	4.03	4.31	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.99/60 and 2nd-half 3.48 vs a 2.94 season rate (3.77 3-yr) (38th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.41/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.03/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 4.14 projected.