Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H242 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3236 GP · 3y
TOI	14.90	14.97	15.08	13.39	15.74
PP TOI	0.11	0.08	0.10	0.05	0.66
G	10	6	5	7	14
A	20	19	20	17	22
PTS	30	25	25	24	37
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	91	83	83	83	119
PIM	38	37	43	29	46
Hits	169	176	174	179	168
Blocks	59	56	51	64	58

Sample: 70 GP · 878 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

115James Hagens-8

116Filip Chytil-8

117Ryan Poehling-8

118Adam Lowry-8

119Jack Roslovic-8

120Connor Dewar-9

121Sean Monahan-9

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 71% below where it started (1.12 in the first half, 0.33 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 94% above where it started (1.23 in the first half, 2.39 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 20% above last season, 25 to 30.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 24% below his 3-year rate last season (4.44 against 5.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings94% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Lowry is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.90	14.97	15.74	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.75	12.54	12.31	+2%
PP TOI	0.11	0.08	0.66	-88%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.75: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 13.2, Q4 13.6) over the full-year 12.5
PP TOI → 0.11: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.31	4.44	5.84	-24%
G/60	0.35	0.27	0.64	-58%
iSH%	8.92	6.08	10.98	-45%
ixG/60	–	0.74	0.91	-18%
iCF/60	–	9.50	11.38	-17%
iSCF/60	–	6.70	7.81	-14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.62	4.71	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.1% sits near the 11.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.74 (66th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 4.44 vs 5.84) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.51	7.58	7.32	+4%
IPP	67.34	66.85	68.66	-3%
1A/60	0.44	0.55	0.39	+39%
2A/60	0.46	0.41	0.45	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.6%, IPP 66.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.11	0.08	0.66	-88%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	2.03	0.00	8.12	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.60	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.22	2.19	2.42	-9%
Hits/60	9.20	9.77	9.54	+2%
Blks/60	2.20	2.12	2.31	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.77/60 (85th pct league-wide) → 9.20 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.12/60 (36th pct league-wide) → 2.20 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.27/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.