Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H241 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3162 GP · 3y
TOI	17.36	17.12	15.15	17.18	18.29
PP TOI	1.45	1.94	1.23	2.72	3.03
G	17	14	13	14	26
A	30	24	19	30	42
PTS	47	38	32	44	67
PPP	7	11	4	18	20
SOG	137	138	136	140	179
PIM	15	13	8	18	24
Hits	43	48	43	54	35
Blocks	43	36	37	35	43

Sample: 78 GP · 973 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

118Adam Lowry-8

119Jack Roslovic-8

120Connor Dewar-9

121Sean Monahan-9

122Nick Paul-10

123Ty Dellandrea-10

124Chandler Stephenson-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Hedge DOWN, deploy-only. We had him at 49 - a 2.06 p/60 against his actual 1.62 - and above every outside read (45 / 41 / 44) for an age-32 forward with a long injury history. The bull case is real and deliberately left in place: his EV IPP fell to 49.3, a career low by a wide margin for a player who cleared a point per game two years ago, and that IS noise that comes back. So the rate hedge is untouched; only the mis-read minutes are corrected. Lands ~46-47, at the top of the outside band rather than through it. CORRECTION 2026-07-27: an earlier version of this note justified the trim partly on a team PP-minute budget. That was wrong - a league-wide check puts Columbus at 18.5 forward PP min/gm, the 4th LOWEST of 32 teams against a league median near 22.5. Columbus is not over-allocated, and the trim stands purely on the H2 deployment artefact described above.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 55% below where it started (2.72 in the first half, 1.23 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 63% below his 3-year rate last season (0.37 against 1.01).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (7.12 against 12.21).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks91% match
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken89% match
Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues87% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sean Monahan is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.36	17.12	18.29	-6%
5v5 TOI	12.36	12.48	12.81	-3%
PP TOI	1.45	1.94	3.03	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.36: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.36: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.45: NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). ENGINE ARTEFACT: we carried 1.90 PP TOI, which is his full-season average, not his finish. His PP TOI by quarter was 2.74 -> 2.69 -> 1.24 -> 1.23 - he spent the last 41 games as a PP2 afterthought. The deployment rule is supposed to anchor on H2 and did not fire here. Set 1.45: above the 1.23 finish (Jenner is gone, someone eats PP2 minutes) and well below the 1.90 artefact.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.09	6.04	6.65	-9%
G/60	0.58	0.43	0.81	-47%
iSH%	10.07	7.12	12.21	-42%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.80	-3%
iCF/60	–	10.85	11.69	-7%
iSCF/60	–	6.35	7.06	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.45	3.91	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 7.1% vs 12.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.1%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.64→0.91 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.18	8.26	10.69	-23%
IPP	52.00	42.86	66.92	-36%
1A/60	0.73	0.37	1.01	-63%
2A/60	0.46	0.31	0.46	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 42.9% sits below the 66.9% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.45	1.94	3.03	-36%
PP iSH%	17.00	7.19	19.77	-64%
PP SOG/60	5.47	5.56	10.53	-47%
PP ixG/60	–	1.69	2.13	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.9→1.4 PP TOI/gp (NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). ENGINE ARTEFACT: we carried 1.90 PP TOI, which is his full-season average, not his finish. His PP TOI by quarter was 2.74 -> 2.69 -> 1.24 -> 1.23 - he spent the last 41 games as a PP2 afterthought. The deployment rule is supposed to anchor on H2 and did not fire here. Set 1.45: above the 1.23 finish (Jenner is gone, someone eats PP2 minutes) and well below the 1.90 artefact.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.42	0.49	0.75	-35%
Hits/60	2.38	2.59	1.85	+40%
Blks/60	1.66	1.36	2.11	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.82/60 and 2nd-half 2.47 vs a 2.59 season rate (1.85 3-yr) (32nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.38/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (12th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.