Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2621 GP	H27 GP	H114 GP	Prev 3124 GP · 2y
TOI	8.98	8.43	8.52	8.13	10.90
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	–	0.08	0.58
G	7	12	0	18	7
A	14	20	12	23	15
PTS	21	31	12	41	21
PPP	0	0	–	0	1
SOG	60	70	70	70	68
PIM	36	39	47	35	40
Hits	253	305	340	287	285
Blocks	30	47	51	45	32

Sample: 21 GP · 172 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

165Tommy Novak-19

166Warren Foegele-20

167Robby Fabbri-20

168Sammy Blais-20

169Collin Graf-20

170Nikita Nesterenko-22

171Jordan Martinook-22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 96% above his 3-year rate last season (0.98 against 0.50).

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 98% above his 3-year rate last season (1.04 against 0.52).

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 42% below last season, 12 to 7.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild96% match
shared: Hits
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: Hits
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins86% match
shared: Hits
Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche86% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sammy Blais is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year (TOR, traded): Martin St. Louis MTL · pre-trade → Craig Berube TOR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	8.98	8.43	10.90	-23%
5v5 TOI	8.71	8.20	10.19	-19%
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.58	-91%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 7 · 7 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 8.98: reverts toward the 3-yr 10.9
5v5 TOI → 8.71: reverts toward the 3-yr 10.2
PP TOI → 0.08: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.27	6.27	4.37	+43%
G/60	0.90	1.04	0.47	+120%
iSH%	14.39	16.59	10.81	+53%
ixG/60	–	0.98	0.50	+96%
iCF/60	–	9.75	8.50	+15%
iSCF/60	–	7.31	5.32	+37%
iHDCF/60	–	4.88	2.70	+80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 7 · 7 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.98 (93rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.50 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 43% (5v5 SOG/60 6.27 vs 4.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.80→1.30 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.10	10.40	8.72	+19%
IPP	95.01	100.00	72.26	+38%
1A/60	0.84	1.04	0.52	+98%
2A/60	0.48	0.70	0.47	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 7 · 7 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.4% (3-yr 8.7%) AND IPP 100.0% (3-yr 72.3%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~4%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.75 vs 8.50) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.88 vs 2.70) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.58	-91%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.86	0.00	7.46	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.84	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 7 · 7 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.19	3.48	2.80	+24%
Hits/60	22.91	27.16	19.95	+36%
Blks/60	2.89	3.83	2.23	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 7 · 7 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (100th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (22.91/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.83/60 (77th pct league-wide) → 2.89 projected.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.48/60 (86th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.