Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 333 GP · 1y
TOI	16.76	16.44	16.25	15.54	15.86
PP TOI	0.35	0.49	0.25	0.74	1.26
G	19	21	23	19	12
A	18	25	30	20	15
PTS	37	47	53	40	27
PPP	1	1	2	0	10
SOG	125	120	150	90	99
PIM	17	12	20	4	20
Hits	77	89	102	76	50
Blocks	46	49	45	52	37

Sample: 81 GP · 1,046 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

166Warren Foegele-20

167Robby Fabbri-20

168Sammy Blais-20

169Collin Graf-20

170Nikita Nesterenko-22

171Jordan Martinook-22

172William Carrier-23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 73% above where it started (0.60 in the first half, 1.04 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 75% above where it started (4.16 in the first half, 7.28 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 61% below his 3-year rate last season (0.49 against 1.26).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 85% above his 3-year rate last season (4.70 against 2.54).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets86% match
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: Blocks
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders83% match
shared: Blocks
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Collin Graf is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.76	16.44	15.86	+4%
5v5 TOI	13.63	12.92	12.17	+6%
PP TOI	0.35	0.49	1.26	-61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.76: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.63: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 13.5, Q4 13.8) over the full-year 12.9; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.35: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.89	5.85	4.18	+40%
G/60	0.95	0.92	0.45	+104%
iSH%	13.84	15.73	10.77	+46%
ixG/60	–	0.84	0.46	+83%
iCF/60	–	10.72	7.17	+50%
iSCF/60	–	7.74	4.78	+62%
iHDCF/60	–	4.93	2.84	+74%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.84 (80th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.46 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 40% (5v5 SOG/60 5.85 vs 4.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.60→1.04 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.78	10.91	9.92	+10%
IPP	69.50	75.93	40.18	+89%
1A/60	0.33	0.46	0.15	+207%
2A/60	0.36	0.46	0.30	+53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 75.9% vs 40.2% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.72 vs 7.17) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.93 vs 2.84) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.46 vs 3-yr 0.30) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.35	0.49	1.26	-61%
PP iSH%	12.96	0.00	16.61	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.41	4.52	8.67	-48%
PP ixG/60	–	0.60	1.24	-52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.5→0.4 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.92	0.69	0.90	-23%
Hits/60	3.84	4.70	2.54	+85%
Blks/60	1.79	1.89	1.79	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 20 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.70/60 (57th pct league-wide) → 3.84 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.45/60 and 2nd-half 1.63 below the 1.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.79/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.79 3-yr mark.