Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2629 GP	H23 GP	H126 GP	Prev 320 GP · 1y
TOI	12.14	12.26	–	12.03	10.32
PP TOI	0.07	0.08	–	0.09	0.08
G	16	3	–	3	16
A	13	23	–	25	8
PTS	29	25	–	28	25
PPP	0	0	–	0	0
SOG	93	88	–	84	82
PIM	12	23	–	25	8
Hits	200	150	–	151	189
Blocks	31	23	–	19	29

Sample: 29 GP · 321 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

139Sheldon Dries-21

140Noah Laba-21

141Michael Misa-21

142Nikita Nesterenko-22

143Noel Acciari-23

144Philipp Kurashev-23

145Alex Newhook-23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 81% below his 3-year rate last season (3.77 against 19.97).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 43% below last season, 23 to 13.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 58% above his 3-year rate last season (0.93 against 0.59).

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 48% below last season, 23 to 12.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken78% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights76% match
shared: Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders75% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild75% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nikita Nesterenko is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 5
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.14	12.26	10.32	+19%
5v5 TOI	11.06	11.09	10.15	+9%
PP TOI	0.07	0.08	0.08	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 7 · 3 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.14: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.06: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.04	5.04	5.91	-15%
G/60	0.26	0.19	1.18	-84%
iSH%	13.16	3.77	19.97	-81%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.80	-23%
iCF/60	–	11.94	11.82	+1%
iSCF/60	–	6.35	7.98	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	2.80	4.43	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 7 · 3 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.8% sits near the 20.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 5.04 vs 5.91) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.05	7.53	9.98	-25%
IPP	78.52	79.68	75.00	+6%
1A/60	0.79	0.93	0.59	+58%
2A/60	0.13	0.37	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 7 · 3 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.5%, IPP 79.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.08	0.08	+2%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	19.23	26.87	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	3.81	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 7 · 3 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.03	1.49	0.59	+153%
Hits/60	11.78	9.89	13.59	-27%
Blks/60	1.52	1.31	2.07	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 7 · 3 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (85th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (11.78/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.76/60 and 2nd-half 0.95 below the 1.31 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.52/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.07 3-yr mark.