Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2642 GP	H225 GP	H117 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	14.62	14.48	14.25	12.96	15.14
PP TOI	1.28	1.02	1.35	0.53	1.88
G	17	25	25	26	17
A	18	23	22	26	17
PTS	35	49	47	52	34
PPP	5	6	7	5	5
SOG	119	119	133	100	119
PIM	21	20	7	39	24
Hits	74	94	74	122	69
Blocks	32	33	41	21	32

Sample: 42 GP · 493 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

142Nikita Nesterenko-22

143Noel Acciari-23

144Philipp Kurashev-23

145Alex Newhook-23

146Zemgus Girgensons-23

147Sam Carrick-23

148Jean-Gabriel Pageau-23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 136% above his 3-year rate last season (0.97 against 0.41).

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 128% above where it started (1.68 in the first half, 3.84 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 66% above his 3-year rate last season (23.73 against 14.33).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 32% below last season, 25 to 17.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken86% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers83% match
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Newhook is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.62	14.48	15.14	-4%
5v5 TOI	12.00	11.76	12.64	-7%
PP TOI	1.28	1.02	1.88	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 5 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.62: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.00: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.28: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.4) over the full-year 1.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.10	5.10	5.29	-4%
G/60	0.93	1.21	0.76	+60%
iSH%	18.28	23.73	14.33	+66%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.68	-10%
iCF/60	–	10.45	10.90	-4%
iSCF/60	–	6.80	6.96	-2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	3.21	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 5 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 23.7% vs a 14.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 18.3% pulls the goal rate ~23% down.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	14.59	17.25	9.19	+88%
IPP	67.36	69.03	62.26	+11%
1A/60	0.72	0.97	0.41	+136%
2A/60	0.28	0.24	0.37	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 5 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 17.2% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.28	1.02	1.88	-46%
PP iSH%	12.45	20.03	6.96	+188%
PP SOG/60	14.22	13.98	8.30	+69%
PP ixG/60	–	1.66	1.33	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 5 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.0→1.3 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.4) over the full-year 1.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.66 vs 1.33) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.03	1.21	1.26	-4%
Hits/60	4.92	5.71	3.88	+47%
Blks/60	1.87	1.82	1.69	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 5 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.30/60 and 2nd-half 4.59 below the 5.71 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.92/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.88 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.02/60 and 2nd-half 2.48 vs a 1.82 season rate (1.69 3-yr) (26th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.87/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.