Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H240 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	15.61	15.67	15.12	14.25	16.80
PP TOI	0.53	0.37	0.48	0.24	1.81
G	13	19	24	13	14
A	22	20	17	24	27
PTS	35	39	41	36	41
PPP	1	1	2	0	5
SOG	95	91	101	79	122
PIM	7	4	4	5	18
Hits	143	127	138	115	181
Blocks	49	57	42	73	68

Sample: 74 GP · 882 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

145Alex Newhook-23

146Zemgus Girgensons-23

147Sam Carrick-23

148Jean-Gabriel Pageau-23

149Yegor Sharangovich-25

150Dalibor Dvorsky-25

151Casey Mittelstadt-25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 131% above his 3-year rate last season (19.16 against 8.30).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 80% below his 3-year rate last season (0.37 against 1.81).

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 57% below where it started (3.62 in the first half, 1.56 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders86% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights79% match
shared: Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings78% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jean-Gabriel Pageau is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.61	15.67	16.80	-7%
5v5 TOI	12.03	11.93	12.30	-3%
PP TOI	0.53	0.37	1.81	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 13 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.61: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.03: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.53: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.5, Q4 0.9) over the full-year 0.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.22	4.28	5.32	-20%
G/60	0.59	0.82	0.44	+86%
iSH%	12.86	19.16	8.30	+131%
ixG/60	–	0.67	0.68	-2%
iCF/60	–	8.16	9.59	-15%
iSCF/60	–	5.78	6.17	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.47	3.27	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 13 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 19.2% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.67 (57th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 12.9% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 4.28 vs 5.32) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.59→0.74 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.07	9.52	8.45	+13%
IPP	69.99	73.59	65.06	+13%
1A/60	0.48	0.41	0.63	-35%
2A/60	0.48	0.48	0.46	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 13 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 73.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.53	0.37	1.81	-80%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	20.46
PP SOG/60	1.40	0.00	5.61	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.47	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 13 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.5 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.5, Q4 0.9) over the full-year 0.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.36	0.27	0.80	-66%
Hits/60	7.85	7.00	10.15	-31%
Blks/60	2.15	2.51	2.90	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 13 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.00/60 (75th pct league-wide) → 7.85 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.07/60 and 2nd-half 1.56 below the 2.51 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.15/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.90 3-yr mark.