Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H236 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	13.86	13.77	13.73	13.36	14.38
PP TOI	0.88	0.63	1.04	0.17	0.60
G	17	16	19	11	20
A	12	5	7	3	21
PTS	29	21	26	14	41
PPP	1	1	2	0	1
SOG	157	128	133	122	187
PIM	27	22	12	33	35
Hits	85	89	84	95	92
Blocks	29	23	26	19	31

Sample: 68 GP · 808 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

163Vladislav Namestnikov-18

164Jordan Greenway-19

165Tommy Novak-19

166Warren Foegele-20

167Robby Fabbri-20

168Sammy Blais-20

169Collin Graf-20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 72% above where it started (9.08 in the first half, 15.66 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 38% above last season, 21 to 29.

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (0.07).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers87% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Hits
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth84% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Warren Foegele is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year (OTT, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Travis Green OTT · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.86	13.77	14.38	-4%
5v5 TOI	11.58	11.90	12.49	-5%
PP TOI	0.88	0.63	0.60	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 16 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.86: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.58: role tapered late (Q4 10.1 vs 11.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.88: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.0, Q4 1.2) over the full-year 0.6

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.90	6.90	9.73	-29%
G/60	0.78	0.82	1.06	-23%
iSH%	11.31	11.88	10.90	+9%
ixG/60	–	0.91	1.17	-22%
iCF/60	–	14.98	17.80	-16%
iSCF/60	–	8.46	10.91	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	4.23	5.84	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 16 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.9% sits near the 10.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 6.90 vs 9.73) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.82→1.00 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.91	7.40	8.75	-15%
IPP	66.29	60.00	76.55	-22%
1A/60	0.29	0.07	0.67	-89%
2A/60	0.39	0.22	0.44	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 16 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 60.0% sits below the 76.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.88	0.63	0.60	+6%
PP iSH%	9.40	14.30	8.02	+78%
PP SOG/60	9.87	9.79	10.90	-10%
PP ixG/60	–	2.00	2.59	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 16 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.6→0.9 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.0, Q4 1.2) over the full-year 0.6) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (14.3% vs 8.0% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.00) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.91	0.89	1.77	-50%
Hits/60	5.38	5.49	5.22	+5%
Blks/60	1.61	1.34	1.41	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 16 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.49/60 (65th pct league-wide) → 5.38 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.38/60 and 2nd-half 1.60 vs a 1.34 season rate (1.41 3-yr) (11th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.61/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.