Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2640 GP	H215 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3163 GP · 3y
TOI	13.08	12.45	11.11	12.91	15.37
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.49
G	7	2	0	3	10
A	11	10	11	10	14
PTS	18	12	11	13	24
PPP	0	0	0	0	2
SOG	88	66	38	82	122
PIM	59	60	59	60	68
Hits	142	115	117	114	174
Blocks	55	45	74	28	64

Sample: 40 GP · 413 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

161Alexandre Texier-18

162Morgan Barron-18

163Vladislav Namestnikov-18

164Jordan Greenway-19

165Tommy Novak-19

166Warren Foegele-20

167Robby Fabbri-20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 74 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 59% below where it started (0.57 in the first half, 0.23 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 61% below his 3-year rate last season (3.02 against 7.68).

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 23% above last season, 115 to 142.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Michael McCarronC · Minnesota Wild94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
John HaydenC · Seattle Kraken94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Mark KastelicC,RW · Boston Bruins93% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jordan Greenway is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year (BUF, traded): Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.08	12.45	15.37	-19%
5v5 TOI	10.64	10.35	12.47	-17%
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.49	-95%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 15 · 8 · 7

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.08: reverts toward the 3-yr 15.4
5v5 TOI → 10.64: role tapered late (Q4 9.7 vs 10.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.03: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.28	4.64	6.17	-25%
G/60	0.17	0.14	0.47	-70%
iSH%	5.72	3.02	7.68	-61%
ixG/60	–	0.43	0.67	-35%
iCF/60	–	9.42	12.31	-23%
iSCF/60	–	4.06	6.61	-39%
iHDCF/60	–	1.01	3.19	-68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 15 · 8 · 7

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.0% sits near the 7.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.43 (36th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 4.64 vs 6.17) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.57 (1st half) to 0.23 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.44	4.79	9.13	-48%
IPP	56.76	75.00	44.59	+68%
1A/60	0.35	0.29	0.33	-11%
2A/60	0.32	0.43	0.29	+46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 15 · 8 · 7

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 75.0% vs 44.6% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.43 vs 3-yr 0.29) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.49	-95%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	9.10
PP SOG/60	1.66	0.00	8.28	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.38	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 15 · 8 · 7

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.66	3.91	3.01	+30%
Hits/60	7.83	6.81	9.36	-27%
Blks/60	3.08	2.61	2.63	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 15 · 8 · 7

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.81/60 (74th pct league-wide) → 7.83 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.41/60 and 2nd-half 5.19 vs a 2.61 season rate (2.63 3-yr) (51st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.08/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.14/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.