Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H224 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3109 GP · 2y
TOI	13.79	13.65	14.01	12.67	14.41
PP TOI	0.99	0.98	1.28	0.72	0.52
G	14	13	17	9	14
A	17	21	22	20	17
PTS	31	34	39	29	31
PPP	4	2	3	0	3
SOG	121	119	131	108	120
PIM	39	42	61	24	36
Hits	86	104	137	76	58
Blocks	32	24	29	20	35

Sample: 51 GP · 615 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

158Jaden Schwartz-15

159Alex Iafallo-16

160Drew O'Connor-17

161Alexandre Texier-18

162Morgan Barron-18

163Vladislav Namestnikov-18

164Jordan Greenway-19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 144% above where it started (5.56 in the first half, 13.58 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 61 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 89% above his 3-year rate last season (6.33 against 3.35).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 19% below last season, 21 to 17.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
shared: Hits
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres83% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers82% match
shared: Hits
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alexandre Texier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year (STL, traded): Martin St. Louis MTL · pre-trade → Jim Montgomery STL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.79	13.65	14.41	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.12	12.08	12.15	-1%
PP TOI	0.99	0.98	0.52	+89%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 12 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.79: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.12: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.99: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.2) over the full-year 1.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.53	6.53	6.25	+4%
G/60	0.72	0.78	0.59	+33%
iSH%	10.96	11.94	9.36	+28%
ixG/60	–	0.68	0.55	+24%
iCF/60	–	13.05	12.91	+1%
iSCF/60	–	6.92	5.80	+19%
iHDCF/60	–	3.41	2.35	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 12 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.68 (59th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.55 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.46→0.86 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.42	9.99	8.26	+21%
IPP	67.71	73.12	56.74	+29%
1A/60	0.44	0.39	0.50	-21%
2A/60	0.37	0.68	0.23	+197%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 12 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.0% (3-yr 8.3%) AND IPP 73.1% (3-yr 56.7%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.41 vs 2.35) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.68 vs 3-yr 0.23) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.99	0.98	0.52	+89%
PP iSH%	13.02	0.00	16.69	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.18	7.18	6.36	+13%
PP ixG/60	–	0.85	1.77	-52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 12 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.85	2.34	1.99	+17%
Hits/60	6.30	6.33	3.35	+89%
Blks/60	1.58	1.36	1.90	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 19 · 12 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 10.27/60 and 2nd-half 8.14 vs a 6.33 season rate (3.35 3-yr) (70th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.30/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (12th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.