Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3209 GP · 3y
TOI	14.47	14.59	15.32	13.01	13.92
PP TOI	0.48	0.40	0.58	0.21	0.15
G	14	17	16	18	12
A	15	12	11	13	15
PTS	29	29	27	31	27
PPP	1	0	0	0	1
SOG	144	136	170	102	133
PIM	34	47	58	36	26
Hits	82	77	87	67	78
Blocks	43	26	20	32	51

Sample: 82 GP · 1,043 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

157Miles Wood-15

158Jaden Schwartz-15

159Alex Iafallo-16

160Drew O'Connor-17

161Alexandre Texier-18

162Morgan Barron-18

163Vladislav Namestnikov-18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 65% above last season, 26 to 43.

Second-half surge

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 170 pace in the second half after 102 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 52% below where it started (17.42 in the first half, 8.30 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 84% above his 3-year rate last season (2.70 against 1.47).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Drew O'Connor is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.47	14.59	13.92	+5%
5v5 TOI	13.03	12.73	12.12	+5%
PP TOI	0.48	0.40	0.15	+173%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.47: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.03: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 13.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 0.48: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 0.8 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.66	6.32	7.28	-13%
G/60	0.63	0.75	0.57	+32%
iSH%	9.53	11.87	7.84	+51%
ixG/60	–	0.95	0.99	-4%
iCF/60	–	12.76	13.84	-8%
iSCF/60	–	7.59	8.79	-14%
iHDCF/60	–	4.94	4.93	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.9% vs a 7.8% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.5% pulls the goal rate ~15% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 6.32 vs 7.28) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.79→1.08 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.26	8.93	7.60	+18%
IPP	64.60	66.67	61.23	+9%
1A/60	0.48	0.52	0.45	+15%
2A/60	0.27	0.11	0.36	-69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.9%, IPP 66.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.48	0.40	0.15	+173%
PP iSH%	11.14	0.00	14.28	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.89	7.40	13.86	-47%
PP ixG/60	–	2.48	4.52	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.5 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 0.8 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.28	2.70	1.47	+84%
Hits/60	4.35	4.20	4.57	-8%
Blks/60	1.47	1.38	2.20	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.20/60 (51st pct league-wide) → 4.35 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.11/60 and 2nd-half 0.97 below the 1.38 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.20 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.