Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2654 GP	H222 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3187 GP · 3y
TOI	11.98	11.86	10.34	12.40	12.58
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.08	0.04	0.54
G	10	12	2	19	11
A	12	9	9	9	15
PTS	22	21	10	29	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	2
SOG	▼110	108	83	128	173
PIM	78	40	40	39	87
Hits	100	96	91	99	112
Blocks	34	29	42	19	36

Sample: 54 GP · 580 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

154Anthony Beauvillier-14

155Danila Yurov-14

156Andrew Copp-14

157Miles Wood-15

158Jaden Schwartz-15

159Alex Iafallo-16

160Drew O'Connor-17

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Peripheral correction only, no change to the point line.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 95% above last season, 40 to 78.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 86% above his 3-year rate last season (10.40 against 5.60).

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 69% below his 3-year rate last season (0.21 against 0.68).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

A.J. GreerLW · Anaheim Ducks89% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Kraken89% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Martin PospisilC,RW · Calgary Flames86% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Miles Wood is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.98	11.86	12.58	-6%
5v5 TOI	10.42	10.76	11.25	-4%
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.54	-93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 17 · 11 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.98: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.42: role tapered late (Q4 9.5 vs 10.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.06: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.61	6.92	10.18	-32%
G/60	0.52	0.72	0.57	+26%
iSH%	7.62	10.40	5.60	+86%
ixG/60	–	0.90	0.95	-6%
iCF/60	–	13.02	17.85	-27%
iSCF/60	–	7.75	8.90	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	4.65	4.48	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 17 · 11 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.4% vs a 5.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.90 (86th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 7.6% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 6.92 vs 10.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.11 (1st half) to 0.52 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.65	7.84	7.41	+6%
IPP	65.09	63.27	67.48	-6%
1A/60	0.33	0.21	0.68	-69%
2A/60	0.33	0.31	0.28	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 17 · 11 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.8%, IPP 63.3%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.54	-93%
PP iSH%	7.57	0.00	13.06	-100%
PP SOG/60	39.12	27.48	13.58	+102%
PP ixG/60	–	3.29	2.56	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 17 · 11 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 13.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.35	2.48	5.50	-55%
Hits/60	6.78	6.40	7.10	-10%
Blks/60	2.31	1.86	2.01	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 17 · 11 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.60/60 and 2nd-half 6.88 vs a 6.40 season rate (7.10 3-yr) (71st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.78/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.87/60 and 2nd-half 3.16 vs a 1.86 season rate (2.01 3-yr) (28th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.