Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H239 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3223 GP · 3y
TOI	15.44	15.59	16.35	14.24	14.83
PP TOI	1.03	1.21	0.70	1.70	1.57
G	13	13	14	13	15
A	18	17	20	13	20
PTS	31	30	33	27	35
PPP	4	5	2	8	8
SOG	121	117	123	112	133
PIM	16	14	19	10	15
Hits	94	125	130	119	45
Blocks	66	58	58	59	66

Sample: 79 GP · 1,022 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

156Andrew Copp-14

157Miles Wood-15

158Jaden Schwartz-15

159Alex Iafallo-16

160Drew O'Connor-17

161Alexandre Texier-18

162Morgan Barron-18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 146% above his 3-year rate last season (6.98 against 2.84).

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 2 pace in the second half after 8 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 62% below where it started (1.75 in the first half, 0.66 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 56% below his 3-year rate last season (0.23 against 0.53).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks
Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Iafallo is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: A, PIM
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.44	15.59	14.83	+5%
5v5 TOI	13.46	12.94	11.28	+15%
PP TOI	1.03	1.21	1.57	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.44: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.46: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.6, Q4 15.4) over the full-year 12.9
PP TOI → 1.03: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.08	5.11	6.37	-20%
G/60	0.53	0.59	0.55	+8%
iSH%	10.43	11.55	8.62	+34%
ixG/60	–	0.71	0.69	+2%
iCF/60	–	9.51	11.80	-19%
iSCF/60	–	6.28	6.84	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.58	3.91	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.5% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.71 (62nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 10.4% pulls the goal rate ~10% down.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 5.11 vs 6.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.56→0.83 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.39	10.45	8.68	+20%
IPP	52.40	48.55	57.11	-15%
1A/60	0.35	0.23	0.53	-56%
2A/60	0.31	0.35	0.36	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.5% vs a 8.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.03	1.21	1.57	-23%
PP iSH%	16.80	9.56	22.04	-57%
PP SOG/60	8.41	13.18	11.64	+13%
PP ixG/60	–	3.14	2.02	+56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.2→1.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (9.6% vs 22.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.65	0.59	0.84	-29%
Hits/60	5.06	6.98	2.84	+146%
Blks/60	3.17	2.99	3.45	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.98/60 (75th pct league-wide) → 5.06 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.99/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 3.17 projected.