Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3223 GP · 3y
TOI	15.61	15.80	15.13	15.62	14.31
PP TOI	0.45	0.52	0.31	0.72	1.07
G	15	15	14	15	14
A	14	13	14	12	16
PTS	29	28	28	27	30
PPP	2	1	2	0	3
SOG	162	155	134	175	158
PIM	21	30	25	35	17
Hits	89	93	76	109	99
Blocks	46	48	56	40	37

Sample: 82 GP · 1,122 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

151Yegor Chinakhov-12

152Trent Frederic-12

153Cole Smith-12

154Anthony Beauvillier-14

155Danila Yurov-14

156Andrew Copp-14

157Miles Wood-15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 52% below his 3-year rate last season (0.52 against 1.07).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 56 pace in the second half after 40 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (0.21 against 0.36).

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 76 pace in the second half after 109 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken88% match
shared: Hits
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets86% match
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings83% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Anthony Beauvillier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.61	15.80	14.31	+10%
5v5 TOI	13.60	13.69	12.64	+8%
PP TOI	0.45	0.52	1.07	-52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.61: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.60: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.45: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.05	7.21	7.66	-6%
G/60	0.67	0.75	0.62	+22%
iSH%	9.51	10.40	8.05	+29%
ixG/60	–	0.98	0.83	+19%
iCF/60	–	13.52	13.54	-0%
iSCF/60	–	9.03	8.92	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	4.65	4.17	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.98 (93rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.83 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.10 (1st half) to 0.83 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.83	9.07	8.47	+7%
IPP	51.00	47.86	55.75	-14%
1A/60	0.24	0.21	0.36	-42%
2A/60	0.30	0.27	0.34	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.1%, IPP 47.9%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.65 vs 4.17) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.45	0.52	1.07	-52%
PP iSH%	10.42	9.09	11.38	-20%
PP SOG/60	17.50	15.52	11.02	+41%
PP ixG/60	–	2.56	1.57	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.5→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.56 vs 1.57) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.09	1.28	0.81	+58%
Hits/60	4.67	4.86	5.62	-14%
Blks/60	2.06	2.03	2.00	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.35/60 and 2nd-half 3.91 below the 4.86 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.67/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.62 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.16/60 and 2nd-half 2.40 vs a 2.03 season rate (2.00 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.06/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.