Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H223 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3113 GP · 3y
TOI	13.65	13.48	14.31	10.15	14.81
PP TOI	1.63	1.31	1.79	0.33	1.74
G	20	24	36	10	20
A	20	24	20	10	22
PTS	40	48	56	21	41
PPP	5	7	4	0	7
SOG	164	158	191	106	161
PIM	13	11	14	16	15
Hits	58	56	39	85	85
Blocks	30	35	23	28	38

Sample: 72 GP · 840 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

148Jonathan Drouin-12

149Teddy Blueger-12

150Stefan Noesen-12

151Yegor Chinakhov-12

152Trent Frederic-12

153Cole Smith-12

154Anthony Beauvillier-14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 56 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 29% below last season, 7 to 5.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 24% above last season, 1.31 to 1.63.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets91% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken84% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Yegor Chinakhov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Dan Muse (PIT)

Last year (PIT, traded): Rick Bowness CBJ · pre-trade → Dan Muse PIT · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.65	13.48	14.81	-9%
5v5 TOI	12.21	11.68	12.27	-5%
PP TOI	1.63	1.31	1.74	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 23 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.65: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.21: same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.5, Q4 12.5) over the full-year 11.7
PP TOI → 1.63: same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 1.8) over the full-year 1.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.65	8.49	7.53	+13%
G/60	1.29	1.36	0.99	+37%
iSH%	14.94	16.02	13.19	+21%
ixG/60	–	0.81	0.62	+30%
iCF/60	–	18.34	16.10	+14%
iSCF/60	–	8.99	7.53	+19%
iHDCF/60	–	3.71	2.38	+56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 23 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold the breakout scoring line; do not fully regress the breakout.

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.62 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 13% (5v5 SOG/60 8.49 vs 7.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.58→1.01 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.84	11.21	9.13	+23%
IPP	79.72	81.00	71.51	+13%
1A/60	0.54	0.57	0.48	+20%
2A/60	0.44	0.50	0.48	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 23 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.2% vs a 9.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 18.34 vs 16.10) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.71 vs 2.38) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.63	1.31	1.74	-25%
PP iSH%	12.15	13.34	12.15	+10%
PP SOG/60	9.63	9.52	10.08	-6%
PP ixG/60	–	0.88	1.23	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 23 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.3→1.6 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 1.8) over the full-year 1.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.71	0.57	0.61	-6%
Hits/60	3.19	3.21	5.02	-36%
Blks/60	1.51	2.00	1.90	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 23 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.08/60 and 2nd-half 2.08 below the 3.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.19/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.02 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.83/60 and 2nd-half 0.83 below the 2.00 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.51/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.90 3-yr mark.