Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2638 GP	H23 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3237 GP · 3y
TOI	11.80	11.75	–	11.54	13.36
PP TOI	1.64	1.61	–	1.51	2.18
G	13	6	–	7	17
A	17	9	–	9	23
PTS	30	15	–	16	39
PPP	10	6	–	7	14
SOG	119	112	–	115	142
PIM	39	71	–	77	38
Hits	97	71	–	73	127
Blocks	23	32	–	32	23

Sample: 38 GP · 374 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

147Beck Malenstyn-11

148Jonathan Drouin-12

149Teddy Blueger-12

150Stefan Noesen-12

151Yegor Chinakhov-12

152Trent Frederic-12

153Cole Smith-12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 67% above last season, 6 to 10.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (5.28 against 2.11).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 55% below his 3-year rate last season (0.32 against 0.71).

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 37% above last season, 71 to 97.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan LeonardRW · Washington Capitals91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: PIM
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs82% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Stefan Noesen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.80	11.75	13.36	-12%
5v5 TOI	9.86	9.86	10.69	-8%
PP TOI	1.64	1.61	2.18	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 3 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.80: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.86: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.64: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.91	6.09	6.72	-9%
G/60	0.42	0.32	0.57	-44%
iSH%	7.10	5.25	8.44	-38%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.94	-22%
iCF/60	–	10.41	12.19	-15%
iSCF/60	–	4.48	7.05	-36%
iHDCF/60	–	2.56	4.31	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 3 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.3% sits near the 8.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (66th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	5.37	3.51	8.40	-58%
IPP	64.90	66.67	62.73	+6%
1A/60	0.49	0.32	0.71	-55%
2A/60	0.19	0.00	0.35	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 3 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 3.5%, IPP 66.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.64	1.61	2.18	-26%
PP iSH%	16.34	7.15	18.93	-62%
PP SOG/60	13.50	13.70	12.89	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	3.26	3.64	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 3 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.6 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.77	5.28	2.11	+151%
Hits/60	6.14	5.28	8.10	-35%
Blks/60	1.82	2.08	1.47	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 3 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.28/60 (63rd pct league-wide) → 6.14 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.08/60 (35th pct league-wide) → 1.82 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.48/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.