Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H238 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3114 GP · 2y
TOI	22.60	23.36	22.16	22.18	17.31
PP TOI	1.70	1.22	2.20	0.35	0.33
G	7	6	9	4	6
A	28	28	33	24	20
PTS	35	34	42	28	26
PPP	5	5	11	0	1
SOG	110	99	92	105	93
PIM	21	16	28	6	13
Hits	45	35	37	34	51
Blocks	95	99	61	133	96

Sample: 81 GP · 1,492 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

159Dante Fabbro-13

160Travis Hamonic-13

161Derek Forbort-13

162Philip Broberg-14

163Mike Reilly-14

164Jamie Oleksiak-14

165Uvis Balinskis-15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 130% above where it started (3.59 in the first half, 8.24 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 40% above last season, 1.22 to 1.70.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 63% below where it started (4.19 in the first half, 1.54 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (1.13 against 2.32).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres91% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers80% match
Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights79% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Philip Broberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: PIM, SOG, PPP
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.60	23.36	17.31	+35%
5v5 TOI	18.18	18.42	15.21	+21%
PP TOI	1.70	1.22	0.33	+271%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.60: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.18: established top role held near 18.4 — the late dip (Q4 17.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 1.70: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.2, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 1.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.90	3.14	4.12	-24%
G/60	0.17	0.16	0.28	-42%
iSH%	5.92	5.10	6.74	-24%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.21	+15%
iCF/60	–	8.36	10.14	-18%
iSCF/60	–	3.22	2.60	+24%
iHDCF/60	–	0.64	0.56	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.1% vs 6.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (28th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 5.9%, lifting the goal rate ~7%.

RiskShot volume down 24% (5v5 SOG/60 3.14 vs 4.12) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.28 (1st half) to 0.18 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.54	11.12	9.49	+17%
IPP	39.37	39.03	40.30	-3%
1A/60	0.41	0.44	0.35	+26%
2A/60	0.43	0.44	0.45	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 39.0%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.64 vs 0.56) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.70	1.22	0.33	+271%
PP iSH%	4.01	16.71	0.00
PP SOG/60	7.50	7.30	3.21	+128%
PP ixG/60	–	0.48	0.77	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.2→1.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.2, Q4 2.5) over the full-year 1.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.65	0.48	0.62	-23%
Hits/60	1.53	1.13	2.32	-51%
Blks/60	2.59	3.02	3.87	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (10th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.28/60 and 2nd-half 1.54 below the 3.02 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.59/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.87 3-yr mark.