Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H234 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3203 GP · 3y
TOI	16.78	16.57	16.88	15.72	18.30
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.03	0.17
G	6	5	6	5	6
A	12	7	5	8	15
PTS	18	12	11	13	20
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	86	75	69	80	103
PIM	42	37	51	25	46
Hits	79	72	78	67	91
Blocks	134	133	117	146	142

Sample: 74 GP · 1,085 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

156Matthew Robertson-12

157Will Borgen-12

158Brent Burns-12

159Dante Fabbro-13

160Travis Hamonic-13

161Derek Forbort-13

162Philip Broberg-14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 51 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 30% below where it started (6.37 in the first half, 4.49 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.09).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 19% below his 3-year rate last season (3.54 against 4.39).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals88% match
shared: Blocks
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: Blocks
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers85% match
shared: Blocks
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dante Fabbro is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.78	16.57	18.30	-9%
5v5 TOI	15.31	14.67	16.10	-9%
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.17	-75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.31: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.1, Q4 16.1) over the full-year 14.7
PP TOI → 0.06: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.54	3.54	4.39	-19%
G/60	0.19	0.22	0.22	-0%
iSH%	5.39	6.21	5.04	+23%
ixG/60	–	0.09	0.16	-45%
iCF/60	–	9.34	9.77	-4%
iSCF/60	–	1.77	2.30	-23%
iHDCF/60	–	0.06	0.18	-67%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 6.2% vs a 5.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.09 (2nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.4% pulls the goal rate ~13% down.

RiskShot volume down 19% (5v5 SOG/60 3.54 vs 4.39) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.09	6.50	8.21	-21%
IPP	32.94	33.13	32.66	+1%
1A/60	0.28	0.28	0.26	+9%
2A/60	0.29	0.06	0.35	-83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.5%, IPP 33.1%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.17	-75%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.03	0.00	5.17	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.60	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.15	1.82	1.94	-6%
Hits/60	3.38	3.21	3.64	-12%
Blks/60	5.31	5.58	5.20	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.21/60 (41st pct league-wide) → 3.38 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 5.02/60 and 2nd-half 4.49 below the 5.58 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.31/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.20 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.