Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	18.72	18.88	18.08	18.67	21.89
PP TOI	0.76	0.68	0.74	0.62	2.45
G	9	12	14	10	11
A	22	23	16	31	33
PTS	31	35	29	41	44
PPP	3	1	0	2	15
SOG	158	172	173	171	205
PIM	27	32	29	35	30
Hits	21	20	21	20	31
Blocks	83	91	87	95	86

Sample: 82 GP · 1,268 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

155Jack St. Ivany-12

156Matthew Robertson-12

157Will Borgen-12

158Brent Burns-12

159Dante Fabbro-13

160Travis Hamonic-13

161Derek Forbort-13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 72% below his 3-year rate last season (0.68 against 2.45).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 56% above his 3-year rate last season (0.61 against 0.39).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tony DeAngeloD · New York Islanders81% match
shared: SOG
Luke HughesD · New Jersey Devils81% match
shared: SOG, G
Shea TheodoreD · Vegas Golden Knights81% match
shared: SOG, G
Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights81% match
shared: SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brent Burns is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.72	18.88	21.89	-14%
5v5 TOI	15.16	15.48	16.10	-4%
PP TOI	0.76	0.68	2.45	-72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.72: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.16: established top role held near 15.5 — the late dip (Q4 14.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.76: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.25	7.47	6.85	+9%
G/60	0.46	0.57	0.35	+64%
iSH%	6.36	7.63	5.08	+50%
ixG/60	–	0.26	0.23	+11%
iCF/60	–	17.83	18.36	-3%
iSCF/60	–	3.36	4.36	-23%
iHDCF/60	–	0.43	0.50	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.26 (30th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.23 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 41 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.56	10.13	8.41	+20%
IPP	42.85	46.00	36.46	+26%
1A/60	0.51	0.61	0.39	+56%
2A/60	0.37	0.43	0.30	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.1% (3-yr 8.4%) AND IPP 46.0% (3-yr 36.5%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~6%.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.76	0.68	2.45	-72%
PP iSH%	5.19	0.00	6.83	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.32	7.55	11.66	-35%
PP ixG/60	–	0.71	0.95	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.7→0.8 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 2.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.28	1.42	1.15	+23%
Hits/60	0.96	0.90	1.14	-21%
Blks/60	3.04	3.22	2.84	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.23/60 and 2nd-half 0.96 vs a 0.90 season rate (1.14 3-yr) (5th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.96/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.46/60 and 2nd-half 3.06 below the 3.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.04/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.84 3-yr mark.