Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2626 GP	H27 GP	H119 GP	Prev 3182 GP · 3y
TOI	14.50	14.38	13.57	14.25	17.07
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.06
G	3	0	0	0	4
A	9	6	14	4	11
PTS	12	6	14	4	15
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	85	66	50	70	116
PIM	58	91	150	78	59
Hits	91	101	102	84	106
Blocks	126	129	189	116	136

Sample: 26 GP · 326 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

157Will Borgen-12

158Brent Burns-12

159Dante Fabbro-13

160Travis Hamonic-13

161Derek Forbort-13

162Philip Broberg-14

163Mike Reilly-14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 84% above where it started (5.48 in the first half, 10.08 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 150 pace in the second half after 78 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (3.31 against 5.53).

Below his 3-year rate

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 ran 60% below his 3-year rate last season (1.29 against 3.20).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings86% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: Blocks
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Travis Hamonic is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.50	14.38	17.07	-16%
5v5 TOI	12.52	12.55	14.43	-13%
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.06	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 7 · 6 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.52: role tapered late (Q4 11.9 vs 12.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.05: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.11	3.31	5.53	-40%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.18	-100%
iSH%	2.32	0.00	3.32	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.08	0.19	-57%
iCF/60	–	7.54	12.70	-41%
iSCF/60	–	1.29	3.20	-60%
iHDCF/60	–	0.00	0.39	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 7 · 6 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 3.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.08 (1st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 40% (5v5 SOG/60 3.31 vs 5.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.08 (1st half) to 0.06 (2nd).

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	5.87	5.35	6.90	-22%
IPP	29.34	28.68	30.36	-6%
1A/60	0.14	0.18	0.16	+13%
2A/60	0.26	0.18	0.30	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 7 · 6 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.4%, IPP 28.7%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.06	-4%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	2.85	0.00	11.39	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.51	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 7 · 6 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.21	5.33	2.60	+105%
Hits/60	4.99	5.52	5.03	+10%
Blks/60	6.54	6.07	5.55	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 7 · 6 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.52/60 (65th pct league-wide) → 4.99 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 10.08/60 and 2nd-half 10.08 vs a 6.07 season rate (5.55 3-yr) (99th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.54/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.55/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.