Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2654 GP	H223 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3102 GP · 2y
TOI	16.07	16.37	18.90	13.82	14.66
PP TOI	1.71	1.25	2.70	0.21	0.76
G	5	8	15	3	4
A	16	15	15	16	13
PTS	21	23	30	19	17
PPP	8	9	22	0	4
SOG	111	100	123	79	92
PIM	34	46	48	45	28
Hits	105	108	96	117	93
Blocks	66	64	78	53	56

Sample: 54 GP · 765 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

162Philip Broberg-14

163Mike Reilly-14

164Jamie Oleksiak-14

165Uvis Balinskis-15

166Conor Timmins-15

167Johnathan Kovacevic-16

168Jared Spurgeon-16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 86% above his 3-year rate last season (11.56 against 6.22).

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 37% above last season, 1.25 to 1.71.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 78 pace in the second half after 53 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 38% below last season, 8 to 5.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks84% match
shared: Hits
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks78% match
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs78% match
shared: Hits
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers77% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Uvis Balinskis is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.07	16.37	14.66	+12%
5v5 TOI	14.55	14.17	13.10	+8%
PP TOI	1.71	1.25	0.76	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 20 · 22 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.07: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.55: same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.7, Q4 15.7) over the full-year 14.2
PP TOI → 1.71: same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.7) over the full-year 1.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.66	3.76	4.58	-18%
G/60	0.17	0.16	0.22	-29%
iSH%	4.71	4.26	4.90	-13%
ixG/60	–	0.19	0.21	-10%
iCF/60	–	8.00	9.88	-19%
iSCF/60	–	2.59	2.43	+7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.31	0.36	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 20 · 22 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.3% sits near the 4.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.19 (20th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 18% (5v5 SOG/60 3.76 vs 4.58) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.92	8.56	6.64	+29%
IPP	34.81	33.49	38.84	-14%
1A/60	0.23	0.31	0.14	+129%
2A/60	0.33	0.24	0.36	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 20 · 22 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 8.6% vs a 6.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.71	1.25	0.76	+65%
PP iSH%	6.36	23.10	0.00
PP SOG/60	11.75	11.56	6.22	+86%
PP ixG/60	–	0.70	0.37	+90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 20 · 22 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.2→1.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 2.7) over the full-year 1.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.70 vs 0.37) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.91	2.20	1.48	+48%
Hits/60	5.07	5.33	4.99	+7%
Blks/60	2.84	2.67	3.01	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 20 · 22 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.34/60 and 2nd-half 4.34 below the 5.33 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.07/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.99 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.13/60 and 2nd-half 3.13 vs a 2.67 season rate (3.01 3-yr) (53rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.