Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2639 GP	H26 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3120 GP · 3y
TOI	18.22	18.76	15.75	18.71	16.32
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	–	0.02	0.74
G	4	0	0	0	4
A	21	17	27	15	23
PTS	25	17	27	15	27
PPP	0	0	–	0	4
SOG	86	93	141	84	77
PIM	42	38	32	39	38
Hits	77	61	59	61	77
Blocks	112	170	150	174	92

Sample: 39 GP · 592 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

163Mike Reilly-14

164Jamie Oleksiak-14

165Uvis Balinskis-15

166Conor Timmins-15

167Johnathan Kovacevic-16

168Jared Spurgeon-16

169Tom Willander-17

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 102% above where it started (3.90 in the first half, 7.87 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 27 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 34% below last season, 170 to 112.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 26% above last season, 61 to 77.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals90% match
shared: Blocks
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers82% match
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Blocks
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Conor Timmins is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.22	18.76	16.32	+15%
5v5 TOI	14.51	15.20	14.23	+7%
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.74	-98%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 0 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.22: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.51: role tapered late (Q4 12.7 vs 15.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.02: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.60	4.25	3.44	+24%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.21	-100%
iSH%	4.27	0.00	6.11	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.13	0.15	-12%
iCF/60	–	10.63	9.63	+10%
iSCF/60	–	2.02	2.57	-21%
iHDCF/60	–	0.00	0.24	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 0 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 6.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.13 (8th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindShot volume up 24% (5v5 SOG/60 4.25 vs 3.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.32	9.40	9.21	+2%
IPP	36.12	34.76	38.11	-9%
1A/60	0.21	0.10	0.42	-76%
2A/60	0.50	0.71	0.42	+69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 0 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.4%, IPP 34.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.63 vs 9.63) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.71 vs 3-yr 0.42) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.74	-98%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.09	0.00	5.43	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.48	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 0 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.76	1.62	1.97	-18%
Hits/60	3.21	2.73	3.93	-31%
Blks/60	4.99	5.57	4.15	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 0 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.15/60 and 2nd-half 3.15 vs a 2.73 season rate (3.93 3-yr) (34th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.21/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.99/60 projected).