🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Tom Willander

VAN · Age 21
VANteam
Dposition
169position rank
482skater rank
-17overall
-40offense
23peripherals
goals
7
assists
20
points
27
power play points
2
shots on goal
81
penalty minutes
42
hits
59
blocked shots
104

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-2670 GPH239 GPH131 GPPrev 3thin
TOI18.1816.9918.0314.13–
PP TOI1.261.191.390.93–
G7648–
A20191129–
PTS27251536–
PPP2408–
SOG81696278–
PIM42334616–
Hits59415819–
Blocks1049110377–

Sample: 70 GP · 1,024 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
166Conor Timmins-15
167Johnathan Kovacevic-16
168Jared Spurgeon-16
169Tom Willander-17
170Tristan Luneau-18
171Isaak Phillips-18
172Dylan DeMelo-18
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year
Second-half fade
PP SOG/60
0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4

PP SOG/60 finished the year 84% below where it started (10.01 in the first half, 1.59 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge
PP TOI
0.87Q1Q2Q3Q4

PP TOI finished the year 55% above where it started (0.89 in the first half, 1.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up
HITS
5922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5

We’re projecting hits 44% above last season, 41 to 59.

We project it up
PIM
4222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 27% above last season, 33 to 42.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tom Willander is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
    fills: SOG, A, PPP
  • Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice
Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI18.1816.99n/a
5v5 TOI16.6514.63n/a
PP TOI1.261.19n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  12 · 19 · 20 · 19
TOI*
18.61Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
17.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
0.87Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
18.1822-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
16.6522-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
1.2622-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/602.942.93n/a
G/600.180.18n/a
iSH%6.146.14n/a
ixG/60–0.13n/a
iCF/60–7.38n/a
iSCF/60–1.64n/a
iHDCF/60–0.12n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  12 · 19 · 20 · 19
SOG/60
2.38Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
0.12Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
5.86Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
0.92Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
0.18Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
2.9322-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
6.1422-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.1322-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
7.3822-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
1.6422-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.1222-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
722-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
8122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.16 (1st half) to 0.11 (2nd).
TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.
TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%9.949.94n/a
IPP34.1534.15n/a
1A/600.230.23n/a
2A/600.290.29n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  12 · 19 · 20 · 19
1A/60
0.18Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
0.18Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.2322-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
2022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
2722-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.9%, IPP 34.1%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI1.261.19n/a
PP iSH%0.000.00n/a
PP SOG/602.604.33n/a
PP ixG/60–0.48n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  12 · 19 · 20 · 19
PP TOI/GP
0.87Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
0.71Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
1.1922-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
4.3322-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.4822-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/601.971.64n/a
Hits/602.221.76n/a
Blks/604.224.22n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  12 · 19 · 20 · 19
PIMs/60
2.56Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3.11Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
5.31Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.6422-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
1.7622-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
4.2222-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
4222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
5922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
10422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.11/60 and 2nd-half 2.35 vs a 1.76 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (21st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.22/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindElite blocks volume (85th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.22/60 projected).