Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H237 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3131 GP · 2y
TOI	18.79	18.43	18.74	17.29	18.20
PP TOI	1.10	0.79	1.16	0.42	1.40
G	7	9	6	13	6
A	20	16	18	14	24
PTS	27	25	23	26	29
PPP	5	2	2	2	6
SOG	97	89	89	89	98
PIM	27	19	29	9	27
Hits	62	44	43	44	104
Blocks	123	126	112	140	98

Sample: 73 GP · 1,094 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

137Erik Gustafsson-7

138Kevin Bahl-7

139Mikey Anderson-7

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

142Andrew Peeke-10

143Jonas Brodin-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP TOI 0.84 -> 1.10, just over the 1.0 floor for a genuine second-unit role. Both outside sources put his points at 31-33 per-82 against our 26; this closes part of that through minutes rather than a blind points multiplier, and stops well short because the PP2 job is a competition with Luneau, not a lock. Note the rest of that gap is even-strength, not power play — closing it fully would need an EV bet, which is not made here. Big PK role (2.5-3 min) post-Trouba/Gudas supports the block volume.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 43% below his 3-year rate last season (0.79 against 1.40).

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 41% above last season, 44 to 62.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (10.19 against 6.58).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers89% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers83% match
Travis SanheimD · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres79% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pavel Mintyukov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.79	18.43	18.20	+1%
5v5 TOI	15.50	14.99	15.04	-0%
PP TOI	1.10	0.79	1.40	-43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 22 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.79: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 15.50: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 1.10: The PP2 quarterback job opened up — Zellweger (the incumbent option), Gudas and Trouba are all gone, and his new $7.2M AAV means the club has to play him. He ran 1.94 PP TOI in 2023-24, so this is a partial return to his own established level, not a new role. Deliberately modest: his trend runs the other way (1.94 -> 0.90 -> 0.79, Q4 down at 0.46), and the outside series that projects PP roles best leaves his PP slot blank, so only one of the two sources backs PP2 at all.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.84	3.73	3.69	+1%
G/60	0.32	0.38	0.24	+57%
iSH%	8.38	10.19	6.58	+55%
ixG/60	–	0.27	0.21	+32%
iCF/60	–	9.98	8.13	+23%
iSCF/60	–	3.95	2.53	+56%
iHDCF/60	–	0.93	0.61	+53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 22 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.27 (31st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.21 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.66	8.61	8.85	-3%
IPP	40.21	40.43	39.31	+3%
1A/60	0.22	0.11	0.34	-68%
2A/60	0.36	0.44	0.36	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 22 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.6%, IPP 40.4%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.98 vs 8.13) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.93 vs 0.61) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.10	0.79	1.40	-43%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	5.56	3.11	6.56	-53%
PP ixG/60	–	0.25	0.46	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 22 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.8→1.1 PP TOI/gp (The PP2 quarterback job opened up — Zellweger (the incumbent option), Gudas and Trouba are all gone, and his new $7.2M AAV means the club has to play him. He ran 1.94 PP TOI in 2023-24, so this is a partial return to his own established level, not a new role. Deliberately modest: his trend runs the other way (1.94 -> 0.90 -> 0.79, Q4 down at 0.46), and the outside series that projects PP roles best leaves his PP slot blank, so only one of the two sources backs PP2 at all.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	0.93	1.04	-10%
Hits/60	2.44	1.81	4.54	-60%
Blks/60	4.27	4.50	3.93	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 22 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.62/60 and 2nd-half 1.84 vs a 1.81 season rate (4.54 3-yr) (21st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.44/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (88th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.27/60 projected).