Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H236 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3197 GP · 3y
TOI	21.48	21.96	21.35	20.22	18.16
PP TOI	0.26	0.27	0.45	0.10	0.07
G	3	4	2	6	3
A	16	15	20	10	14
PTS	19	19	22	16	16
PPP	1	1	2	0	0
SOG	70	62	58	65	72
PIM	58	51	41	60	63
Hits	135	123	128	119	135
Blocks	105	107	87	125	109

Sample: 76 GP · 1,359 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

135Jordan Spence-6

136Michael Kesselring-7

137Erik Gustafsson-7

138Kevin Bahl-7

139Mikey Anderson-7

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (7.83 against 3.10).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 20 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 44% below where it started (3.92 in the first half, 2.20 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.10).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils86% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth84% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights83% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kevin Bahl is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year: Ryan Huska full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.48	21.96	18.16	+21%
5v5 TOI	17.64	17.88	15.78	+13%
PP TOI	0.26	0.27	0.07	+280%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.48: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.64: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.26: same coach (Ryan Huska) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.26	2.30	3.12	-26%
G/60	0.13	0.18	0.10	+86%
iSH%	4.52	7.83	3.10	+152%
ixG/60	–	0.10	0.12	-16%
iCF/60	–	6.00	8.63	-30%
iSCF/60	–	1.50	1.93	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	0.26	0.21	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 7.8% vs a 3.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.10 (3rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 2.30 vs 3.12) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.12 (1st half) to 0.08 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.08	9.09	9.06	+0%
IPP	28.43	28.70	27.93	+3%
1A/60	0.22	0.13	0.31	-58%
2A/60	0.33	0.35	0.31	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.1%, IPP 28.7%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.26 vs 0.21) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.26	0.27	0.07	+280%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	33.32
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	12.90	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.12	0.46	-74%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.18	1.90	2.59	-27%
Hits/60	4.97	4.46	5.73	-22%
Blks/60	2.90	3.13	3.96	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.46/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 4.97 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.82/60 and 2nd-half 2.20 below the 3.13 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.90/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.96 3-yr mark.