Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3228 GP · 3y
TOI	20.77	20.57	21.18	18.84	21.67
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.10	0.06	0.08
G	4	4	5	3	5
A	19	16	19	13	18
PTS	23	21	24	16	22
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	81	62	68	57	95
PIM	28	22	18	27	31
Hits	129	114	138	90	147
Blocks	132	136	134	138	137

Sample: 80 GP · 1,411 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

136Michael Kesselring-7

137Erik Gustafsson-7

138Kevin Bahl-7

139Mikey Anderson-7

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

142Andrew Peeke-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 138 pace in the second half after 90 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 40% above his 3-year rate last season (5.18 against 3.71).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 29% below his 3-year rate last season (2.51 against 3.53).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers91% match
shared: Hits
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres87% match
shared: Hits
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers87% match
shared: Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mikey Anderson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.77	20.57	21.67	-5%
5v5 TOI	18.25	17.64	18.33	-4%
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.08	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.25: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 19.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 0.09: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.51	2.51	3.53	-29%
G/60	0.10	0.13	0.13	-1%
iSH%	4.15	5.18	3.71	+40%
ixG/60	–	0.16	0.18	-9%
iCF/60	–	7.23	8.89	-19%
iSCF/60	–	2.13	2.45	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	0.51	0.45	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.2% vs a 3.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.16 (16th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.2% pulls the goal rate ~20% down.

RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 2.51 vs 3.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.64	8.79	7.96	+11%
IPP	34.20	34.22	34.13	+0%
1A/60	0.32	0.38	0.21	+78%
2A/60	0.37	0.26	0.42	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 34.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.51 vs 0.45) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.08	+1%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	50.00
PP SOG/60	1.27	0.00	6.36	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.68	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.87	0.68	1.15	-41%
Hits/60	4.86	4.46	5.38	-17%
Blks/60	4.40	4.68	3.98	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 20 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.11/60 and 2nd-half 5.11 vs a 4.46 season rate (5.38 3-yr) (55th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.86/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.40/60 projected).