Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H235 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3194 GP · 3y
TOI	19.37	19.39	18.61	19.13	19.26
PP TOI	0.06	0.05	0.07	0.03	0.07
G	3	5	3	7	3
A	13	10	9	10	14
PTS	16	15	13	16	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	87	87	83	91	87
PIM	22	23	25	21	22
Hits	124	112	118	107	158
Blocks	152	144	131	154	160

Sample: 77 GP · 1,268 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

139Mikey Anderson-7

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

142Andrew Peeke-10

143Jonas Brodin-10

144Caleb Jones-10

145Andreas Englund-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 74% above his 3-year rate last season (5.35 against 3.08).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 30% above last season, 10 to 13.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 23% below his 3-year rate last season (4.83 against 6.28).

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 131 pace in the second half after 154 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers93% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Brayden McNabbD · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andrew Peeke is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year (BOS, traded): Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.37	19.39	19.26	+1%
5v5 TOI	16.51	16.47	16.45	+0%
PP TOI	0.06	0.05	0.07	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 18 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.37: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.51: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.06: same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.55	3.55	3.63	-2%
G/60	0.15	0.19	0.11	+70%
iSH%	4.21	5.35	3.08	+74%
ixG/60	–	0.13	0.12	+7%
iCF/60	–	9.51	8.91	+7%
iSCF/60	–	2.41	2.05	+18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.14	0.26	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 18 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.13 (8th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.12 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.82	7.64	8.04	-5%
IPP	31.79	33.51	29.68	+13%
1A/60	0.25	0.14	0.30	-54%
2A/60	0.23	0.28	0.19	+49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 18 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.6%, IPP 33.5%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.28 vs 3-yr 0.19) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.05	0.07	-24%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 18 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.93	0.95	0.92	+3%
Hits/60	5.40	4.83	6.28	-23%
Blks/60	5.59	5.35	5.94	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 18 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.58/60 and 2nd-half 5.19 vs a 4.83 season rate (6.28 3-yr) (57th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.40/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (95th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.59/60 projected).