Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2662 GP	H224 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3172 GP · 3y
TOI	20.91	20.29	17.82	20.77	23.07
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.44
G	6	5	3	6	7
A	▼19	19	14	22	22
PTS	▼25	24	17	28	29
PPP	1	1	3	0	0
SOG	112	100	137	77	133
PIM	26	21	27	17	30
Hits	22	13	10	16	47
Blocks	155	167	147	179	168

Sample: 62 GP · 1,090 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

142Andrew Peeke-10

143Jonas Brodin-10

144Caleb Jones-10

145Andreas Englund-10

146Ian Cole-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): 29 points was too many for a defenseman with no power play at all and a 0.94 even strength scoring rate. His 5v5 minutes also fell from 19.16 to 15.89 across last season, and he finished the playoffs with a broken foot.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 81% below where it started (8.92 in the first half, 1.65 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 24% above last season, 21 to 26.

Bottom of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.44).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Travis SanheimD · Philadelphia Flyers78% match
shared: Blocks
Colton ParaykoD · St. Louis Blues77% match
shared: Blocks
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres75% match
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals75% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonas Brodin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 5
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.91	20.29	23.07	-12%
5v5 TOI	17.52	17.59	18.75	-6%
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.44	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.91: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.52: established top role held near 17.6 — the late dip (Q4 15.9) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.15: same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.27	4.02	4.61	-13%
G/60	0.20	0.22	0.20	+8%
iSH%	4.74	5.47	4.43	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.16	-14%
iCF/60	–	8.97	10.08	-11%
iSCF/60	–	2.09	2.55	-18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.28	0.50	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.5% vs a 4.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.7% pulls the goal rate ~8% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 4.02 vs 4.61) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.12→0.17 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.95	8.92	9.05	-2%
IPP	35.66	35.61	35.82	-1%
1A/60	0.37	0.50	0.19	+168%
2A/60	0.42	0.22	0.50	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.9%, IPP 35.6%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.15	0.11	0.44	-76%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	2.36	0.00	9.42	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.53	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.04	0.88	1.11	-21%
Hits/60	0.59	0.44	1.54	-72%
Blks/60	5.40	5.78	4.82	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.44/60 and 2nd-half 0.22 below the 0.44 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.59/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.54 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (98th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.40/60 projected).