Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	18.17	18.27	17.45	18.18	19.47
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.06
G	2	3	2	4	2
A	16	20	22	18	13
PTS	18	23	24	22	16
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	63	62	59	64	81
PIM	55	50	57	43	69
Hits	69	73	55	90	105
Blocks	154	151	132	169	193

Sample: 82 GP · 1,209 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

143Jonas Brodin-10

144Caleb Jones-10

145Andreas Englund-10

146Ian Cole-10

147Jonathan Aspirot-10

148Nicolas Hague-10

149Jaycob Megna-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 57% below where it started (6.64 in the first half, 2.88 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 55 pace in the second half after 90 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 22% below last season, 23 to 18.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers91% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Jake McCabeD · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers86% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ian Cole is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year (UTA, traded): André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.17	18.27	19.47	-6%
5v5 TOI	14.61	14.75	16.06	-8%
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.61: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.04: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.79	2.88	3.42	-16%
G/60	0.11	0.15	0.09	+64%
iSH%	3.94	5.21	2.67	+95%
ixG/60	–	0.21	0.14	+49%
iCF/60	–	8.48	8.45	+0%
iSCF/60	–	2.48	1.88	+32%
iHDCF/60	–	0.25	0.25	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.21 (23rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.14 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 2.88 vs 3.42) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 37 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.83	10.63	8.72	+22%
IPP	29.31	31.94	25.64	+25%
1A/60	0.32	0.35	0.27	+30%
2A/60	0.31	0.35	0.27	+31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.6% (3-yr 8.7%) AND IPP 31.9% (3-yr 25.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~11%.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.35 vs 3-yr 0.27) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-33%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.02	0.00	4.10	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.19	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.48	2.28	3.06	-26%
Hits/60	2.89	3.03	4.38	-31%
Blks/60	5.62	5.50	6.23	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.35/60 and 2nd-half 2.19 below the 3.03 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.38 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 4.49/60 and 2nd-half 4.69 below the 5.50 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.62/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.23 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.