Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H239 GP	H122 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	16.74	16.74	16.91	15.79	–
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.04	–
G	4	4	2	8	–
A	15	13	20	1	–
PTS	19	18	23	9	–
PPP	2	1	2	0	–
SOG	63	62	66	55	–
PIM	56	58	59	56	–
Hits	114	116	108	128	–
Blocks	113	112	114	108	–

Sample: 61 GP · 935 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

144Caleb Jones-10

145Andreas Englund-10

146Ian Cole-10

147Jonathan Aspirot-10

148Nicolas Hague-10

149Jaycob Megna-10

150Brendan Smith-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 81% below where it started (12.40 in the first half, 2.40 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 28% below where it started (6.63 in the first half, 4.78 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 15% above last season, 13 to 15.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals84% match
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth84% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils84% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins83% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonathan Aspirot is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	16.74	16.74	n/a
5v5 TOI	15.55	15.33	n/a
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 13 · 20 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.74: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 15.55: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.06: same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	2.82	2.82	n/a
G/60	0.19	0.19	n/a
iSH%	6.74	6.74	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.16	n/a
iCF/60	–	8.15	n/a
iSCF/60	–	1.60	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.38	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 13 · 20 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	13.03	13.03	n/a
IPP	20.52	20.52	n/a
1A/60	0.13	0.13	n/a
2A/60	0.38	0.38	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 13 · 20 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 13.0%, IPP 20.5%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 13 · 20 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.65	2.76	n/a
Hits/60	5.09	5.26	n/a
Blks/60	4.81	4.81	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 13 · 20 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.37/60 and 2nd-half 4.78 below the 5.26 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.09/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.81/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.19/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.