Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H234 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3214 GP · 3y
TOI	20.93	20.82	19.66	19.86	21.41
PP TOI	0.19	0.13	0.16	0.11	1.07
G	4	3	5	2	6
A	21	26	23	29	20
PTS	25	29	27	31	26
PPP	1	1	0	2	5
SOG	100	100	94	105	120
PIM	18	17	26	10	16
Hits	63	53	44	61	130
Blocks	157	159	174	147	161

Sample: 76 GP · 1,283 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

138Kevin Bahl-7

139Mikey Anderson-7

140Pavel Mintyukov-8

141Ryan Pulock-8

142Andrew Peeke-10

143Jonas Brodin-10

144Caleb Jones-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (2.29 against 5.02).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 19% below last season, 26 to 21.

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 27% above where it started (4.44 in the first half, 5.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 14% below last season, 29 to 25.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers84% match
Colton ParaykoD · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: Blocks
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres81% match
shared: Blocks
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Pulock is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Vince DunnD · Seattle Krakencovers 4
fills: PIM, A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.93	20.82	21.41	-3%
5v5 TOI	16.89	16.89	17.60	-4%
PP TOI	0.19	0.13	1.07	-88%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.93: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.89: established top role held near 16.9 — the late dip (Q4 16.2) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.19: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.93	3.93	3.98	-1%
G/60	0.16	0.14	0.18	-21%
iSH%	4.00	3.56	4.44	-20%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.15	-0%
iCF/60	–	9.63	9.81	-2%
iSCF/60	–	1.96	2.38	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	0.19	0.10	+93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 3.6% vs 4.4% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.0%, lifting the goal rate ~12%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.43	9.44	9.36	+1%
IPP	40.95	43.15	30.95	+39%
1A/60	0.37	0.42	0.28	+47%
2A/60	0.35	0.51	0.32	+59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 43.1% vs 30.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.19 vs 0.10) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.51 vs 3-yr 0.32) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.19	0.13	1.07	-88%
PP iSH%	5.45	0.00	9.74	-100%
PP SOG/60	5.33	12.14	10.76	+13%
PP ixG/60	–	0.92	0.62	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 9.7%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.70	0.65	0.60	+8%
Hits/60	2.76	2.29	5.02	-54%
Blks/60	4.99	5.00	4.97	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.48/60 and 2nd-half 1.84 below the 2.29 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.76/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.02 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (93rd pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.99/60 projected).