Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2634 GP	H218 GP	H116 GP	Prev 3147 GP · 2y
TOI	14.18	13.39	11.33	14.76	16.85
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	–	0.00	0.50
G	4	0	0	0	7
A	14	5	11	0	21
PTS	18	5	11	0	28
PPP	0	0	–	0	2
SOG	108	111	95	120	126
PIM	93	121	224	46	86
Hits	81	60	44	72	108
Blocks	67	92	92	107	70

Sample: 34 GP · 421 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

133J.J. Moser-6

134Logan Mailloux-6

135Jordan Spence-6

136Michael Kesselring-7

137Erik Gustafsson-7

138Kevin Bahl-7

139Mikey Anderson-7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 224 pace in the second half after 46 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 35% above last season, 60 to 81.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Second-half fade

TOI

TOI finished the year 23% below where it started (14.72 in the first half, 11.33 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
shared: PIM
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth83% match
shared: PIM
Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · Tampa Bay Lightning83% match
shared: PIM
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Michael Kesselring is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Jake SandersonD · Ottawa Senatorscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year (BUF, traded): Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.18	13.39	16.85	-21%
5v5 TOI	12.81	12.40	15.62	-21%
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	0.50	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 7 · 15 · 3

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.18: reverts toward the 3-yr 16.8
5v5 TOI → 12.81: role tapered late (Q4 10.5 vs 12.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.00: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.41	6.41	5.43	+18%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.26	-100%
iSH%	2.39	0.00	4.79	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.22	+10%
iCF/60	–	14.38	12.85	+12%
iSCF/60	–	3.42	3.22	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	0.85	0.42	+102%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 7 · 15 · 3

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 0.0% vs 4.8% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (28th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 2.4%, lifting the goal rate ~0%.

TailwindShot volume up 18% (5v5 SOG/60 6.41 vs 5.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.21→0.30 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.96	8.99	8.85	+2%
IPP	17.39	11.57	45.62	-75%
1A/60	0.23	0.00	0.52	-100%
2A/60	0.33	0.28	0.39	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 7 · 15 · 3

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 11.6% sits below the 45.6% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.38 vs 12.85) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.85 vs 0.42) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	0.50	-100%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	8.34
PP SOG/60	1.95	0.00	9.76	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.81	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 7 · 15 · 3

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.95	6.83	4.00	+71%
Hits/60	4.01	3.56	4.83	-26%
Blks/60	4.28	4.84	3.19	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 7 · 15 · 3

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.04/60 and 2nd-half 3.04 below the 3.56 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.01/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.83 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.71/60 and 2nd-half 5.71 vs a 4.84 season rate (3.19 3-yr) (91st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.28/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.28/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.