Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H240 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3216 GP · 3y
TOI	21.41	21.57	20.43	20.49	20.32
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.11	0.07	1.23
G	5	7	6	9	5
A	21	23	22	23	22
PTS	26	30	29	31	27
PPP	1	1	2	0	6
SOG	94	115	119	111	83
PIM	50	72	67	77	35
Hits	74	63	58	69	81
Blocks	115	94	98	91	116

Sample: 79 GP · 1,406 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

130Jamie Drysdale-4

131Parker Wotherspoon-6

132Brandon Carlo-6

133J.J. Moser-6

134Logan Mailloux-6

135Jordan Spence-6

136Michael Kesselring-7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 46% above his 3-year rate last season (4.57 against 3.13).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 31% below last season, 72 to 50.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 22% above last season, 94 to 115.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers86% match
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: PIM
Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · Tampa Bay Lightning84% match
shared: PIM
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks84% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where J.J. Moser is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.41	21.57	20.32	+6%
5v5 TOI	17.59	17.80	15.92	+12%
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	1.23	-93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.41: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.59: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.57	4.57	3.13	+46%
G/60	0.26	0.30	0.16	+91%
iSH%	5.79	6.56	5.02	+31%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.17	+33%
iCF/60	–	10.28	8.17	+26%
iSCF/60	–	3.20	2.97	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	0.68	0.63	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (27th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.17 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 46% (5v5 SOG/60 4.57 vs 3.13) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.06	10.14	9.94	+2%
IPP	32.84	32.80	32.90	-0%
1A/60	0.21	0.17	0.31	-46%
2A/60	0.46	0.55	0.37	+50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.1%, IPP 32.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.28 vs 8.17) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.55 vs 3-yr 0.37) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	1.23	-93%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	11.56
PP SOG/60	1.18	0.00	5.89	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.50	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.00	2.22	1.50	+48%
Hits/60	2.68	2.26	3.32	-32%
Blks/60	2.97	2.56	3.58	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.26/60 (28th pct league-wide) → 2.68 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.56/60 (50th pct league-wide) → 2.97 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.