Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 396 GP · 2y
TOI	19.76	20.17	19.67	19.78	17.90
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.15
G	2	3	3	3	1
A	19	28	28	26	12
PTS	21	31	31	29	13
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	72	72	70	74	65
PIM	40	56	55	57	35
Hits	159	166	170	162	135
Blocks	118	115	120	110	114

Sample: 80 GP · 1,385 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

128Zeev Buium-3

129Dylan Samberg-3

130Jamie Drysdale-4

131Parker Wotherspoon-6

132Brandon Carlo-6

133J.J. Moser-6

134Logan Mailloux-6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 32% below last season, 28 to 19.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 32% below last season, 31 to 21.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.09).

Bottom of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (2.56).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins84% match
shared: Hits
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils84% match
shared: Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals81% match
shared: Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights81% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Parker Wotherspoon is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year (PIT, traded): Dan Muse full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.76	20.17	17.90	+13%
5v5 TOI	17.12	17.32	15.73	+10%
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.15	-68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.76: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.12: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.56	2.56	2.94	-13%
G/60	0.06	0.09	0.04	+119%
iSH%	2.46	3.52	1.40	+152%
ixG/60	–	0.09	0.07	+21%
iCF/60	–	6.32	7.07	-11%
iSCF/60	–	1.47	1.63	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	0.04	0.08	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.09 (2nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.07 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 2.56 vs 2.94) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.07	10.91	8.36	+31%
IPP	33.01	35.64	27.66	+29%
1A/60	0.37	0.43	0.24	+79%
2A/60	0.33	0.56	0.32	+76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.9% (3-yr 8.4%) AND IPP 35.6% (3-yr 27.7%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~10%.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.56 vs 3-yr 0.32) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.15	-68%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	13.87	15.45	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.51	0.99	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.45	1.52	1.35	+13%
Hits/60	5.76	5.89	5.56	+6%
Blks/60	3.95	3.77	4.21	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.89/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 5.76 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.77/60 (75th pct league-wide) → 3.95 projected.