Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2666 GP	H242 GP	H124 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	21.16	21.82	21.54	20.21	17.05
PP TOI	0.09	0.11	0.10	0.15	0.05
G	4	1	1	1	4
A	16	16	15	21	15
PTS	20	17	16	22	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	111	107	97	124	90
PIM	30	17	18	18	38
Hits	83	66	63	68	87
Blocks	152	143	148	124	129

Sample: 66 GP · 1,217 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

126Jake Middleton-2

127Dennis Gilbert-3

128Zeev Buium-3

129Dylan Samberg-3

130Jamie Drysdale-4

131Parker Wotherspoon-6

132Brandon Carlo-6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 finished the year 64% below where it started (4.24 in the first half, 1.52 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (2.22 against 3.86).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (0.59 against 1.64).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers87% match
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: Blocks
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers84% match
shared: Blocks
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dylan Samberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.16	21.82	17.05	+28%
5v5 TOI	18.27	18.45	14.55	+27%
PP TOI	0.09	0.11	0.05	+103%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.16: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.27: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.09: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.57	3.65	4.20	-13%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.17	-100%
iSH%	1.97	0.00	3.94	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.13	0.13	+1%
iCF/60	–	9.56	10.26	-7%
iSCF/60	–	2.32	2.30	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	0.30	0.14	+110%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 0.0% vs 3.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.13 (8th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 2.0%, lifting the goal rate ~-2%.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 3.65 vs 4.20) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.17 (1st half) to 0.12 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.19	8.08	8.52	-5%
IPP	23.18	21.26	30.46	-30%
1A/60	0.22	0.10	0.37	-73%
2A/60	0.25	0.34	0.23	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 21.3% sits below the 30.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.30 vs 0.14) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.34 vs 3-yr 0.23) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.11	0.05	+103%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	10.86	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	2.06	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.80	0.59	1.64	-64%
Hits/60	2.77	2.22	3.86	-42%
Blks/60	4.33	4.14	4.62	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.85/60 and 2nd-half 2.04 below the 2.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.86 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.14/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 4.33 projected.