Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H235 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	20.95	19.58	19.19	18.27	–
PP TOI	1.89	2.32	1.40	3.10	–
G	7	6	5	8	–
A	22	22	14	28	–
PTS	29	28	19	36	–
PPP	12	14	5	22	–
SOG	93	79	85	73	–
PIM	62	44	68	24	–
Hits	38	30	37	24	–
Blocks	74	59	77	44	–

Sample: 76 GP · 1,241 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

125Yan Kuznetsov-2

126Jake Middleton-2

127Dennis Gilbert-3

128Zeev Buium-3

129Dylan Samberg-3

130Jamie Drysdale-4

131Parker Wotherspoon-6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 68 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 27% above last season, 30 to 38.

Bottom of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (2.56).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators81% match
shared: PPP
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks79% match
shared: PPP
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks75% match
shared: PPP
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs74% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zeev Buium is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, Hits
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year (VAN, traded): John Hynes MIN · pre-trade → Adam Foote VAN · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	20.95	19.58	n/a
5v5 TOI	18.39	16.34	n/a
PP TOI	1.89	2.32	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 16 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.95: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 18.39: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 18.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.89: role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; Set a rookie-defenseman baseline around 35-40 with PP1 QB usage.; Regress points off the lost PP role; keep the hits/blocks floor.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	2.74	2.56	n/a
G/60	0.15	0.14	n/a
iSH%	5.47	5.47	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.14	n/a
iCF/60	–	7.35	n/a
iSCF/60	–	2.71	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.34	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 16 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.13→0.15 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 20 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	6.97	6.97	n/a
IPP	36.21	36.21	n/a
1A/60	0.24	0.24	n/a
2A/60	0.24	0.24	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 16 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.0%, IPP 36.2%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.89	2.32	n/a
PP iSH%	17.62	17.62	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.87	5.79	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.49	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 16 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a rookie-defenseman baseline around 35-40 with PP1 QB usage. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskPP role projected down: 2.3→1.9 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; Set a rookie-defenseman baseline around 35-40 with PP1 QB usage.; Regress points off the lost PP role; keep the hits/blocks floor.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.45	1.88	n/a
Hits/60	1.43	1.26	n/a
Blks/60	2.65	2.37	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 16 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress points off the lost PP role; keep the hits/blocks floor.

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.84/60 and 2nd-half 1.49 vs a 1.26 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (12th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.43/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.01/60 and 2nd-half 3.00 vs a 2.37 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (45th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.65/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.